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GREENSBORO — Most of us aren't bankers.

Is now the right time for so many millions in bonds? Join the discussion at the Debatables blog.

Despite that, voters must figure out in the next 12 days whether $671.6 million in bonds is a wise investment for Guilford County.

The package of bond proposals is the largest that the county has faced. If all pass, the county's debt would double, reaching an all-time high of
$1.2 billion.


Make no mistake. Everyone who pays taxes, rents or buys anything in Guilford County will pay for the bonds, which are split into five referendums on the primary ballot. Early voting is under way, and the vote is May 6.


But is now the best time to take out such big bonds?


"In an economy that is relatively in decline, what if we can't pay it back?" asked Greensboro's George Hartzman, head of Think Professional Education, which provides continuing education for certified public accountants.


Hartzman, whose day job is for a major Charlotte bank, uses city and county finances in his classes.


"What if foreclosures go up and tax revenues go down? Would we be struggling to pay off debt that we may have a problem on?" he asked.


Taxes would pay down the debt. If all bonds pass, someone with a $200,000 home could expect to pay an average of $191 extra in each of the next five years if only property taxes were used to pay off the bonds.


After five years, the payment amounts on each bond voters approve would decrease.


Some say the likely tax increase linked with any bond proposal is worthwhile.


"I'm not concerned that our taxes go up a few hundred dollars a year," said Bhushan Thakkar, who moved to the Forest Oaks neighborhood from New Jersey three years ago. He said that good schools raise the property value of his house. "People want to live in areas with nice amenities."


Here's what supporters say for each referendum:


* Guilford County Schools wants to build, expand and renovate schools systemwide with a $412.3 million bond, which would help to reduce crowding, among other benefits.


* Crowding and safety are major concerns at the county jail, says Guilford County Sheriff BJ Barnes . If those problems go unattended, the federal government could take over, which would be expensive. A $114.6 million bond would pay for a 1,000-bed jail.


* Work force training at GTCC could be improved with a $79.5 million bond for a new campus near Piedmont Triad International Airport and other construction at existing campuses.


* A $45 million bond would pay to rebuild Eastern Guilford High School, which burned in 2006.


* Countywide park expansion and urban greenway development is a $20.2 million bond.


A quarter-cent sales tax increase, also left to voters May 6, is one way to ease the pain of a bigger tax bill for property owners.


If that passes, you'd pay 59 cents more in sales tax for a new 80-gigabyte iPod, though the tax would not be applied to groceries or gasoline.


All those pennies would give the county about $15 million annually , and bond supporters are already looking at that potential revenue for bond payments.


But the revenue could instead pay for ever-increasing costs of running North Carolina's third-largest county. And in March, commissioners asked County Manager David McNeill to produce a version of the 2008-09 budget with no property-tax rate increase.


"The top 10 taxpayers in this county pay $14 million in property taxes," McNeill said, comparing that to what the sales tax could bring.


And after all that, county finance workers are still planning a budget that assumes all the bonds pass.


Beyond the bond projects, taxpayers will likely be asked to pick up operating and staffing costs, particularly at the jail and schools.


Operating costs for new schools under the $412 million bond is $4.9 million a year for utilities, maintenance and custodial staff. But that figure does not include the local cost of additional teachers needed to fill those schools. More than $11 million would be needed each year to staff the jail addition, based on a 2005 study that recommended the expansion and gave a staffing estimate for it.


There are questions that can't be answered without a crystal ball. What happens if one of those top 10 taxpayers leaves? What if the price of a gallon of gas increases again by a third, as it did last year?


Some allowances in construction cost variables are built into the proposals. More than $60 million is budgeted for cost overruns on the larger Guilford County Schools construction bond, for example.


But the primary question is one voters must answer.


Does the county need all the things proposed? Right now?


"And that's the problem is, borrowing to get what we need now," Hartzman said. "Why not just pay as we go?"

Contact Gerald Witt at 373-7008 or gerald.witt@news-record.com