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GREENSBORO — The local economy didn’t generate much peace and joy in 2011, but it did offer a measure of hope.

“I would have to say this was an improving year for business,” said Don Jud, professor emeritus at UNCG’s Bryan School of Business and Economics. “We have a long way to go, but I think the trend is in the right direction now.”

Jud based his forecast on his Guilford Business Index, which follows the ups and downs of the local economy. From October 2010 to October 2011, the index increased 2.2 percent. For the Triad, it rose 1.9 percent.

But all the economic numbers haven’t been as encouraging.

Unemployment for Guilford County remains painfully high. In fact, 2011 will likely mark the third consecutive year that the county has posted an annual jobless rate of 10 percent or higher.

On top of that, Moody’s Analytics said in August that the Greensboro-High Point metro area won’t recoup the 38,000 jobs it lost during and after the Great Recession until late 2020.
In addition, data released this year show that poverty in the county continued to rise and median household income continued to fall.

The economic conditions for many children worsened significantly, with one in four living in poverty in 2010, the most recent year for which statistics are available.

“We should not underrate the problems facing our community,” said Keith Debbage, a UNCG geography professor. “I would say the year has been turbulent. (We’ve) faced some tough times. There’s no doubt about it.”

The headlines for 2011 reflected some of that turmoil.

In January, American Express announced it would close its Greensboro call center and move 1,500 jobs.

“We just hate it,” Jim Melvin, president of the Joseph M. Bryan Foundation, said at the time. “We’re just going to have to pick ourselves up from the canvas and keep going.”

American Express, a major employer and benefactor in the region, said it estimated that 400 of those employees would be allowed to work from home.

March offered another disappointment.

Google said it would build its ultra-fast broadband network in Kansas City, Kan., bypassing bids from Greensboro and about 1,100 other cities.

In August, a Florida company said it had selected a site in the Sunshine State instead of Guilford County for a $1.5 billion solar farm.

At the other end of the job spectrum, Honda Aircraft said in October that the company would carry out an $80 million expansion at its headquarters at Piedmont Triad International Airport that would add 419 jobs over the next five years.

But Michimasa Fujino, the company’s president and CEO, also said production of the $4.5 million HondaJet would be pushed back for the third time since 2009. Because of engine problems, manufacture of the business jet won’t begin until 2013.

Fujino called the delay “regrettable news.” But he added, “I never give up.”

The Honda announcement was by far the biggest project handled by the Greensboro Economic Development Alliance this year. The agency landed six projects that produced 635 jobs. In 2010, it brought in seven projects that promised 213 jobs.

Another major job creator kicked off production in Guilford earlier this year.

In September, FedEx Ground began operations at its $110 million “super hub” in Kernersville. The company said its workforce could reach 1,200 to 1,400 by 2020 or 2021.

In the meantime, work continued at the massive American Express data center in Whitsett in eastern Guilford. The company will invest between $700 million and $1 billion in the operation over the next 20 years.

The 510,000-square-foot building should be finished early next year, but the company would not provide a specific date.

Another major construction project started in March.

Moses Cone Hospital began work on a $200 million expansion — the biggest in its history — that will add 260,000 square feet, 16 more operating rooms and 96 private beds.
The two construction cranes that tower over the grounds provide a rare sight for Greensboro in recent years.

“Someone told me one time that if you don’t see a crane outside a hospital,” Landon Wyatt, project manager in the hospital’s construction management department, said last summer, “then it’s not a hospital to go to.”

Earlier this month, Cone Health system officials said they also want to expand in another way.

The network said it would absorb Alamance Regional Medical Center in Burlington next year, pending regulatory approval.

In February, High Point University announced an expansion of its own. HPU said it had purchased struggling Oak Hollow Mall for $9 million.

The previous owner, CBL & Associates Properties, will continue to operate the mall.

Another development in High Point produced major news in May.

A new company called International Market Centers said it would spend $1 billion to buy the largest furniture showrooms in High Point and Las Vegas, ending a six-year battle between the two cities.

Most observers declared High Point the winner in the fight for supremacy. The local market generates a statewide impact of $1.2 billion annually, making it the state’s biggest economic event.

Both cities will continue to hold two markets a year.

On a much smaller scale, but no less attention-getting, Greensboro leaders said earlier this month that a Trader Joe’s grocery may finally be coming to the city.

They say an out-of-town developer has expressed interest in building a 50,000-square-foot shopping center — that could include a Trader Joe’s — in what is now a residential area at the corner of Friendly Avenue and Hobbs Road.

Neighbors say such a rezoning request would spur heated opposition.

But others see such a development as an encouraging sign.

“This is an indication that the developer thinks that our economy is on the upswing,” said Kirk Perkins, vice chairman of the Guilford County Board of Commissioners. “I know some of the neighbors may be opposed. But we’ve not had much of this (kind of development) in the last three years.”

Don Jud says his economic index reflects some of that optimism.

l Over the past 12 months, employment in Guilford has increased by 1.4 percent, twice the growth rate for the nation.

l Initial claims for unemployment compensation have declined 13.3 percent over the year, compared to a drop nationally of 8.8 percent.

l Over the past year, retail sales in the county have increased 0.6 percent, considerably behind the 2.6 percent jump nationwide.

l Residential building permits in Guilford have soared 48.3 percent over the past year, well ahead of the 9.9 percent increase nationally. Yet, single-family permits have dipped 16.2 percent over the past 12 months, indicating that the growth has come from multifamily units.

l The average house price in the county has jumped 6.1 percent from October a year ago. In addition, the number of homes sold increased 4.5 percent over the past 12 months.

l The number of real estate foreclosures dropped 27.7 percent in Guilford over the past year. Even so, at the current pace, the county will record nearly 3,500 this year.

Jud says his economic index began declining in December 2007, the start of the recession, and hit its low point in July of 2009.

“We have been on the upswing ever since,” he said. “We’re still 2.3 percent below where we were in December 2007. We are still in recovery.”

Contact Donald W. Patterson at 373-7027 or don.patterson@news-record.com