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GREENSBORO — Guilford County’s unemployment rate dropped in September when compared with August, according to a new report from the state’s Employment Security Commission.

The unemployment rate improved in 92 of the state’s 100 counties in September.

But don’t be overly encouraged.

Employment estimates vary widely from month to month because of seasonal hiring patterns. A one-year comparison of September 2011 to September 2010 shows a much different picture.

The one-year comparison shows that the unemployment rate has actually grown.

“If you back up and look year-over-year, you’ll find there really isn’t much to celebrate in these numbers,” said John Quinterno, an economic analyst and principal of South by North Strategies Ltd. in Chapel Hill.

“If you look at the month-to-month, (unemployment has) dropped in almost every county,” Quinterno said. “If you take the counties and look at them in the context of where we were a year ago, we’re actually higher.”

Guilford County’s unemployment rate dropped from 11.1 percent in August to 10.5 percent in September. But the rate rose from 9.9 percent in September 2010.

And that’s the picture in 13 of the state’s 14 major metropolitan regions, Quinterno said. Unemployment is higher year-to-year in 87 of the state’s counties, he said.

That’s true for the Greensboro-High Point metro’s other two counties, Rockingham and Randolph.

In Rockingham County, unemployment dropped slightly to 11.6 percent in September compared with August. But it’s higher than the September 2010 figure of 11 percent.

Likewise, Randolph County’s unemployment was lower in September at 9.6 percent compared with August. It was higher than the September 2010 figure of 9.4 percent, however.

The one bright spot? Massive layoffs aren’t causing the unemployment increases, Quinterno said. The relatively few people who have been laid off in the past several months are finding it nearly impossible to find jobs because jobs aren’t being created, he said.

February 2010 was the lowest point for employment in North Carolina during the recession, he said. Since then, the state’s economy has created only 14,400 net jobs — nowhere near enough to replace the more than 300,000 jobs lost early in the downturn.

People are prone to optimism, so it’s hard to be gloomy when monthly figures seem to be improving.

“The labor market component of the recession has dragged on for so long,” Quinterno said, “people are losing perspective on just how bad conditions are.”

Contact Richard M. Barron at 373-7371 or richard. barron@news-record.com