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RALEIGH — Ask pretty much any political expert and they’ll tell you that what happens in North Carolina’s polling places next year will be tied to what happens in the state’s marketplaces.

“I’m going to watch unemployment numbers and housing starts and see what happens to the economy,” said Hunter Bacot, a political science professor and pollster at Elon University.

More than one political career, he said, may rise or fall with the economy, although your guess as to which ones might be as good as the experts’ at this point.

At this point in the 2008 campaign, former Sen. John Edwards was considered a viable presidential candidate, and national commentators had all but written off then-state Sen. Kay Hagan’s chances of knocking off Republican rock star Sen. Elizabeth Dole.

And any honest commentator will tell you predictions about this year are just as dicey.

That said, as we rocket into the 2010 election cycle, experts point to several stories that bear watching in politics and government.

U.S. Senate election

Midterm congressional elections are historically difficult for the president’s party. In this case, congressional Democrats might expect to lose seats even in ordinary times.

That could bode well for Republican incumbent Richard Burr as he runs for a second six-year term in the U.S. Senate, said longtime GOP strategist and commentator Carter Wrenn.

“The interesting political equation is the national trend toward Republicans,” Wrenn said. “That could go any number of ways. It could build and you could have a huge election for Republicans ... or (President Barack) Obama could make a comeback. The key thing with Burr is not so much what his campaign does but how that national trend shakes out.”

The U.S. Senate race is the only statewide election on North Carolina’s ballot in 2010. And more than any other race in the state, Democratic chances may be tied to the economy.

“If Obama’s policy on the economy is right and it starts turning around, the politics will follow for him,” Wrenn said. “If it goes the other way, there isn’t any amount of politics that’s going to save him or the Democrats.”

Meanwhile, national and statewide Democratic organizations point to polls showing potential contenders within striking distance of Burr.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spent a considerable amount of time urging Cal Cunningham, a former state senator and Iraq war veteran, to run after higher-profile members of the party begged off the race in 2009.

Along with Cunningham, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall and Durham lawyer Kenneth Lewis are viewed as the strongest contenders for the Democratic nomination.

All 13 of the state’s U.S. House seats are also up for election. Most district lines are drawn to heavily favor either Democrats or Republicans, and incumbents have a strong advantage in running for re-election. Rep. Larry Kissell, a first-term Democrat in the 8th District near Charlotte, is expected to face the toughest re-election bid.

Scandals

Scandals that rocked state Democrats in 2009 will continue to play out in 2010, including:

• Former Gov. Mike Easley was called to appear before the State Board of Elections and has been the subject of an investigation by federal prosecutors. Among the topics for which Easley is getting scrutiny is a land deal near the coast, unreported campaign contributions and the appearance that Easley might have helped key contributors with environmental permitting in exchange for financial support.
• Former U.S. Sen. John Edwards also has faced federal inquiry related to his campaign finances and whether contributions were illegally used to silence Rielle Hunter. Edwards acknowledged an affair with the former campaign videographer but denied fathering her child.
• Tony Rand, the soon-to-be-retired Democratic majority leader in the Senate, has faced public scrutiny over his role as chairman of LEA, a firm that has sold security equipment to the state. Rand faces allegations of illegal insider trading by two former executives as he prepares to lead the state’s parole commission.
• State prosecutors say they plan to file felony assault charges against Sen. R.C. Soles in connection with a shooting at his home. Soles, a powerful and long-serving lawmaker, has faced scrutiny, including a now-recanted allegation of molestation, over his dealings with young men he describes as former clients. Soles said Wednesday he would not seek re-election.

“One of the things Republicans are going to be running against is the corruption,” N.C. Republican Party Chairman Tom Fetzer said.

Democrats argue that voters won’t punish local lawmakers for the transgressions of others, particularly retired senators and governors.

“I don’t think people in Alma Adams’ district or Maggie Jeffus’ district are going to blame them either because common sense tells you they had nothing to do with it,” House Speaker Joe Hackney said last year.

Recent history may bear this out. In 2006, then-House Speaker Jim Black of Matthews was immersed in scandals that eventually sent him to jail, but Democrats retained control of the House and Senate.

“It can resonate, but generally corruption is part of a larger narrative that is woven by candidates during the campaign,” said Andrew Taylor, an N.C. State political science professor. “It doesn’t become the central, defining issue.”

Regardless of their political impact, whether some of the state’s best-known political figures end up going to trial over their alleged transgressions will be closely watched.

Already there have been consequences.

Obama has nominated Charlotte lawyer Thomas Walker to be U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District. But Burr has blocked the nomination, saying that current prosecutor George Holding, a Bush administration appointee, should be allowed to finish his two high-profile investigations.

State budget and taxes

A week after the primary election May 4, the General Assembly will convene to adjust a two-year budget plan that already cut spending on some services and likely will face a gap of $300 million or more.

“Given the extent of the cuts that were made last year, it’s incredibly important we have a discussion about what further cuts to Medicaid and mental health would mean,” said Chris Fitzsimon, a writer for N.C. Policy Watch, which generally advocates for progressive or liberal causes.

Additional cuts to Health and Human Services would outrage the people who rely on those services, Fitzsimon said

That could prompt the General Assembly to raise taxes again or find other ways to raise money. Given the struggle to keep basic services intact, observers expect few sweeping legislative gestures this year.

“I don’t see anything really significant coming out of the General Assembly this spring,” said Rebecca Klase, a political science professor at Greensboro College. There will be little other than the budget to grab headlines, she said.

And conservative advocates say that whatever budget problems the state has to deal with in 2010, lawmakers should shy away from tax increases.

“How the legislature responds is going to dictate what the business community’s involvement may look like in the elections,” said John Rustin, executive director of the N.C. Free Enterprise Foundation, a conservative-leaning business group.

General Assembly races

“I will make a prediction right now that Republicans will gain a majority in both houses of the General Assembly in the 2010 elections,” Fetzer said.

The GOP, he said, will be able to use the sour economy and Democratic scandals to oust Democrats from power. Republicans haven’t held the state Senate since before 1900 and have enjoyed only two terms of outright control in the House during the same time.

Rustin said the 2010 elections will be particularly important for lawmakers because the next General Assembly will draw the state’s legislative districts after the upcoming census.

Republicans have long argued that legislative boundaries have favored Democrats, frustrating GOP efforts even when voters sided with them on the issues.

Klase said she thinks Democrats will lose some legislative seats but it’s unlikely that Republicans will wrest control of either house.

But N.C. State’s Taylor described a Republican takeover of the state House or Senate as “well within the realms of possibility.”

That’s particularly true, he said, in the Senate, where announced and probable retirements of senior leaders such as Rand, Soles and Gaston County’s David Hoyle expose long-held seats to tough campaigns.

But legislative Democrats are confident they’ll still be in control when the General Assembly convenes in 2011.

“We’ve got some seats we’d like to pick up,” said Rep. Hugh Holliman, a Lexington Democrat and the House majority leader.

Of all the local races, Holliman faces one of the toughest re-election campaigns in a district that is philosophically conservative despite Democratic advantages in terms of voter registration.

Rep. Laura Wiley, a High Point Republican, has announced that she will not run for re-election. All other Guilford County incumbents have said they plan to run to retain their seats.

Congressional action

As 2009 comes to a close, Congress is still debating reforms to the nation’s health care system that Obama originally said he wanted on his desk by August. However, lawmakers in both parties say it appears the health care bill will be out of the Senate and perhaps finished by mid-January.

Once that’s done, the Senate in particular will have a backlog of topics to tackle.

“The key area I’m focused on is jobs,” said Hagan, a Greensboro Democrat.

Although indicators such as the gross domestic product suggest the recession is over, workers continued to lose jobs throughout the fall. Economists say most people won’t feel the recovery until the job market begins to grow again.

Congressional Democrats who control the House and Senate say a jobs bill will be among their priorities in the new year. Other items on the congressional agenda include:

• Late in 2009, the House passed a financial services reform bill that would create a new consumer protection agency and curb some abusive lending practices. The Senate is expected to offer its version soon.
• After December’s climate change summit in Copenhagen, Congress is expected to craft its own bill aimed at curbing emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases linked to global warming.

Added pressure to act has been brought to bear by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, which says it will regulate carbon dioxide even if Congress fails to act.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Contact Mark Binker at (919) 832-5549 or mark.binker@news-record.com