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State's population growth slows

Thursday, December 24, 2009
(Updated 6:57 am)

RALEIGH (MCT) - North Carolina's population growth slowed in the year ending July 1, hurting the state's chances of gaining another congressional seat after the 2010 Census.

The state was still the ninth fastest-growing in the nation, even as unemployment rose to historic levels, but the growth rate of 1.4 percent was slower than in years past. The state's population increased about 134,000, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates released Wednesday.

In the same period the year before, the state grew by 2 percent, or 180,000 people, and ranked fourth in the rate of growth.

After decades of exporting people to other states for jobs or an education, North Carolina reversed the tide around 1970 with the success of Research Triangle Park and Charlotte's banking industry, as well as the state's rising popularity as a place to retire. Nearly 9.4 million people now live in the state, up from just over 8 million in 2000.

The state's recent growth reflects a national slowdown in the number of people moving to other states, especially in the South and West, according to the Census Bureau. About 59,000 people moved to North Carolina from other states in the year that ended July 1.

The Census Bureau's estimates are the last before the decennial census, which will determine how members of Congress are apportioned.

Based on the new estimates, North Carolina would not be among the eight states expected to be awarded additional seats, according to two independent political data firms. If the seats were apportioned today, North Carolina would be about 75,000 people short of getting another seat, said Clark Bensen of the political and demographics research firm Polidata, based in Virginia.

But Bensen said a large growth surge next year could change North Carolina's chances. In 2000, North Carolina surprised many researchers by gaining a 13th seat, he said.

Bob Hall, head of Democracy North Carolina, a nonpartisan group that advocates voter participation, said the new numbers point to the importance of the 2010 census. The state still has a chance at another congressional seat, he said, but in any event, hundreds of thousands of new residents will mean millions in federal funding and redrawn legislative districts.

''The political, economic and social impact of getting a full count in a big-growth state like North Carolina will be enormous," Hall said in a statement.

Hall, like many, saw the state's slowed but steady growth as a sign that North Carolina is still vibrant despite a bruising recession.

Throughout the recession, unemployment has hovered well over the national average. The rate is now 10.8 percent, the 10th highest in the nation and almost a full point higher than the national rate of 10 percent.

N.C. State University economist Michael Walden said people have probably continued to come to North Carolina because of its reputation as a high-growth state with a low cost of living, warm weather and good quality of life.

''They may look to the South and say, 'At least if we move there, things won't be as expensive,' " Walden said.

The state is also a destination for retirees, for whom the job market wouldn't be a concern, Walden said.

Bob Coats, the governor's census liaison, said the struggling economy is not enough to stall the state's growth.

''We're not operating in a vacuum here," Coats said. "Certainly we have segments of our economy here that have been severely impacted by the economy, but we're not the only state in that situation." 

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