NASCAR's main challenge this offseason is determining how to please fans and improve competition for the 2010 season, which begins in less than two months.
While the buzz about Danica Patrick in select Nationwide races next season distracts many from the sport's issues, that should not deter NASCAR officials from their task.
Evidence points to a declining interest level, which can lead to the perception that NASCAR is in trouble.
Consider:
* NASCAR TV ratings for most networks declined as much as 11 percent.
* Attendance fell by more than 10 percent.
* Average lead changes per race were their lowest since 2003.
* This year had the fewest pole winners since 1989.
Of course, go ask any U.S. racing series executive and they'd love to have such problems, noting NASCAR remains the country's most popular motorsports series.
Even so, issues remain.
TV ratings were down for much of the season. Ratings play a key role for the sport because it measures fan interest. Many networks airing NFL, NBA or college football have seen rating increases this year, while NASCAR's ratings on most networks fell. Fox's ratings for NASCAR dipped 11 percent from last year with TNT down 9 percent and ABC down 8 percent. ESPN's ratings were up about 5 percent.
"The ratings and the properties are still very, very strong," said Stephen Master, vice president of Nielsen Sports, which measures TV viewership. "Granted, there is a bit of a small decline, but I think people are getting a little bit bent out of shape over the decline because it's still a phenomenally strong property."
TV ratings have declined from 2005 but this past year saw sharper dips. Reasons vary for this year's drop from Jimmie Johnson winning a fourth consecutive title to the series' most popular driver, Dale Earnhardt Jr., having his worst season in Cup.
NASCAR officials are banking on more than an Earnhardt revival to raise TV ratings in 2010. Standardizing start times, series officials claim, should entice more fans to watch since many of them wanted races to start sooner.
Just as important for NASCAR is getting fans to the track. The economy played a major role in the attendance decline. Based on the crowd estimate that NASCAR provides for each race, attendance was down 12 percent from last year.
Tracks lowered ticket prices to entice fans to return. Lesa France Kennedy, chief executive officer for International Speedway Corp., which owns several tracks, said that her company saw an increase in first-time buyers purchasing tickets that had been reduced. She admits that "our challenge is to get them to their first event."
Just as challenging can be keeping fans coming back, especially those that claim the racing isn't as good as it once was.
Kennedy, notes that she expects some changes that should help the racing.
"I think that you can bet that NASCAR is going to be taking a really close look, especially before Daytona on some adjustments that they can make," she said. "They always are willing to go back and retake a look at things. I think you're going to see changes and more excitement."
While there are many ways to determine if a race is exciting, one measure is lead changes. Hampered by a rain-shortened Daytona 500 and Coca-Cola 600, this season averaged 19.5 lead changes per race. That's down from last year's total of 21.1 and the lowest since there were only 18 lead changes per race in 2003.
It's hard to pass, competitors say, because the cars are even.
"I just really believe we're a victim of our desire," Michael Waltrip said. "We wanted all the cars to be even. Well, they're all even and they pretty much run like it.
"I don't know what to say. I'm not smart enough to tell you the answer. I do know that the fans would probably appreciate the competitors not complaining about the car. I don't think the car is at fault."
Other competitors have disagreed, including Earnhardt earlier this season. Even with this car there were 14 different race winners, two more than last year, but two fewer than two years ago. Also, three drivers -- Mark Martin, Brian Vickers and Johnson combined to win more than half the poles this season.
So, what to do? Waltrip said NASCAR needs to cut the engine's horsepower from 900 to 600. That will close the competition and provide for more side-by-side racing.
Of course, Waltrip notes his opinion is one of many. He said that NASCAR's town hall meeting in late May with competitors, car owners and others provided little unanimous consent but "people saying 10 different things."
So, what does NASCAR do?
Listen and learn.
"The good news is we have a lot of people that have been doing this for 10, 20, 30 years, who understand how to filter the opinions, the reactions, and the advice that we get into a way that gets the best outcome for the sport," NASCAR Chairman Brian France said. "We're not perfect. We'll make mistakes. But by and large, year after year, we will make far more good decisions than we will poor ones. And the poor ones that we make, we'll try to fix them as fast as we can."
Contact Dustin Long at 373-7062 or dustin.long@news-record.com
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