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After a prolonged, devastating recession, an economic recovery has begun to take shape in Guilford County.

That’s the word from The Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank.

The agency’s third-quarter analysis of the nation’s economy says the production of goods and services in the Greensboro-High Point area grew by 0.7 percent. That’s the first increase since the first quarter of 2008.

But before consumers break out the hats and horns to celebrate, they should be advised that the analysis calls the local recovery fragile.

It says the increase in economic output may have resulted from the replenishment of manufacturing inventories and temporary government stimulus programs.

Once those programs end, the recovery could slow, give way to another recession or dissolve into a prolonged period of economic stagnation, the report says.

At this point, the local uptick might be compared to taking a shower while wearing a raincoat.

“Technically, the region may be in recovery, but it doesn’t feel like a recovery,” said Howard Wial, one of the authors of the report. “The Greensboro economy still has a long way to go to get back to anything you would call a good performance.”

While the rate of job losses has slowed, the area’s high unemployment rate — 11.1 percent — continues to dampen the public’s take on the recovery.

“The job market is not unraveling the way it was a year ago. That’s an improvement,” said John Quinterno, a principal at South By North Strategies, a research firm in Chapel Hill. “But for most people that is very little consolation.”

Since the end of 2006, the Greensboro-High Point area has lost nearly 28,000 jobs, a 7.3 percent decline.

Many observers believe the economy has a ways to go before it can produce enough jobs to significantly lower unemployment, boost incomes and give workers a sense of security.

Don Jud, a professor emeritus in UNCG’s Bryan School of Business and Economics, believes the area will begin to see employment growth in the first quarter of 2010.

He also says October data for the Triad show that retail sales rose 1 percent, residential building permits jumped 1.3 percent and initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 1.9 percent.

“All those things suggest that the economy is on track for a recovery here and nationally,” Jud said. “It is not going to be a real barn-burner of a recovery, but it is a recovery.”

The Brookings report shows just how much the Greensboro-High Point area has suffered during the two-year recession.

Among the 100 largest metro areas, the local economy ranks 87th in employment decline, 79th in unemployment rate and 88th in the loss of economic output.

Called the gross metro product, that latter category has plunged 6 percent since its peak in the third quarter of 2006.

That translates into a loss of about $2.2 billion in economic production.

“It’s not as bad as Detroit,” Wial said of the local performance. “But it’s down there.”

The GMP declined 15.2 percent in Detroit. By comparison, it fell 0.4 percent in Raleigh and 3.8 percent in Charlotte. Nationally, output declined 2.5 percent.

Not surprisingly, Greensboro-High Point’s third-quarter jump in output lagged behind Raleigh (1.1 percent) and Charlotte (1 percent).

The analysis listed Greensboro-High Point and Charlotte among 66 metros that reported growth in economic output and a decline in the rate of job losses.

Raleigh was among 13 cities to record growth in both categories.

Quinterno urged caution in making too much out of such reports.

“It’s better than it was a year ago,” Quinterno said of the economy, “But that doesn’t mean it’s good.”

Contact Donald W. Patterson at 373-7027 or don.patterson@news-record.com