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GREENSBORO — A few months ago, the big question was whether the newly developed H1N1 virus would outrun efforts to vaccinate Americans against it.

While the race isn’t over, the vaccination effort appears to be in the lead.

With supply catching up with demand, Guilford County’s health department opened the door Monday for anyone to get the vaccine, not just those in high-risk groups.

More than 100,000 doses have been distributed in Guilford County since the vaccine first became available two months ago.

“We are beginning to hear providers say, 'I’ve got plenty. I’ve got my high-risk groups covered,’ ” said Lynne Beck, a spokeswoman for the department.

While vaccination numbers are on the rise, the number of cases is dropping, health officials say.

The same is true nationally, as more than 70 million doses of the vaccine have been distributed across the country. The number of states with widespread flu activity continues to decline, dropping from 43 to 25 in recent weeks, according to the Centers for Disease Control.

Health officials remain wary, emphasizing that the diseaseis still present in the community.

“Let’s not throw a party yet,” said Steve Ramsey, preparedness manager for the health department.

To stop the spread of an epidemic, it’s not necessary that 100 percent of people be vaccinated.

If a certain saturation point — which varies by disease based on factorssuch as how contagious it is — is reached, the virus will havetrouble finding enough new hosts.

Health officials aren’t certain precisely where that point is and believe there’s a chance that H1N1 could surge for a third time, following peaks in the summer and earlier this fall.

“We want to eliminate or flatten that third wave altogether,” Ramsey said.

By spring, it should be evident whether that effort was successful, he said.

In the meantime, officials continue to encourage residents to get vaccinated.

“If there’s vaccine in my refrigerator, I don’t feel victorious,” Ramsey said. “I want it in people’s arms.”

Contact Jason Hardin at 373-7021 or jason.hardin@news-record.com