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GREENSBORO — Local retailers hope to find less coal and more money in their Christmas stockings this season.

Shoppers, of course, want more deep discounts, like the ones they found last year after the bottom fell out of the economy.

Both groups could wind up disappointed.

“No one (wins),” said Andrew Brod, director of UNCG’s Center for Business and Economic Research. “Times suck.”

That’s not to say holiday sales won’t improve this year over last. They should.

Or that consumers won’t find bargains. They will.

Things just won’t be like last year. That’s because the economy is on the upswing this time around, not crashing.

“Last year was so bad,” said Brad Rogers, general manager at Friendly Center and the Shops at Friendly Center. “It was tough. I think everyone is approaching this season cautiously optimistic.”

Retailers would prefer a “ho, ho, ho” Christmas in 2009 — that’s what they’ve gotten in years past — but you take what you can get these days in retail.

Over the past decade, retail sales during November and December have grown by an average of 3.4 percent a year. But in 2008, the 3.4 percent decline — one of the grimmest holiday shopping seasons ever — left retailers saying “no, no, no.”

This year, the National Retail Federation in Washington projects that sales will decline 1 percent. That means shoppers will still be pinching their pennies.

Researchers say the improvement in the economy, marked by a recent improvement in retail sales, rising home values and higher stock prices, has been offset by restricted credit, growing mortgage delinquencies and double-digit unemployment.

“It doesn’t matter what budget they are on, customers are going to shop smarter this holiday season,” said Mark Thorsen, general manager of Four Seasons Town Centre. “This season, more than ever, value is extremely important.”

In the ongoing competition between retailers and shoppers, some economists believe the long recession has shifted the advantage to the retailer.

Last year, most agree, it was a buyers’ market. When the recession hit, retailers found themselves awash in merchandise. As a result, they resorted to deep discounts to unload excess product.

This year, they’re better prepared. Most are going into the holiday season with less inventory.

That means a couple of things for shoppers.

One, fewer jaw-dropping bargains.

“You’re probably not going to be able to walk into a store the week before Christmas and see everything 60 percent off,” said Ellen Davis, vice president of the NRF, the nation’s largest retail trade group. “Retailers should be able to stick with planned promotions without having to resort to panic discounting.”

Two, less choice.

Reduced inventories could mean hot items will be in short supply.

“This really is the year to buy early,” Davis said. “Sales are expected to be at 2005 levels and inventory at 2003 levels.”

One national survey projects that consumers plan to spend just over $450 on gifts in 2009. That’s down nearly $120 in two years.

Even so, some local retailers say they expect an increase in business this year over last.

“I’m quite sure of it,” said Bennett Waller, customer solutions manager for Best Buy on South Forty Drive. “The mood in Greensboro is optimistic .... The amount of customers doing early shopping reinforces that thought.”

That could be because more than half of retailers surveyed by the NRF have extended their sales seasons.

They’ve done so by offering discounts prior to Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, which has become the traditional start of the holiday shopping period.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Sears has been offering “Black Friday Now” sales every Saturday this month and Kmart has run “Better Than Black Friday” sales the three weekends prior to Thanksgiving.

Walmart says its customers will see savings on select items of up to 50 percent in advance of the holiday weekend.

“Everywhere I go, there’s a sale going on,” said Rogers, the Friendly Center general manager. “That’s a change in the retail landscape in general. I think competition is so steep that the days of running sales once a month or once a quarter are gone. There is constantly a sale somewhere.”

More sales aren’t the only lure retailers plan to use.

Malls, shopping centers and individual retailers will be offering giveaways, buy-one-get-one free deals, savings passes, coupon books and free shipping for online purchases.

Others have increased the use of social media sites such as Facebook and Twitter. Some plan extended hours on Black Friday.

The Target on Bridford Parkway will open at 5 a.m., an hour earlier than last year.

“We’re trying to stay competitive,” said store manager Ricky Turner.

Downtown Greensboro doesn’t plan to miss out on the competition either, issuing a news release that bills the center city as “an alternative to the hectic holiday shopping experience.”

Some downtown merchants plan to decorate their windows for the holidays; others will hold open houses or charity raffles.

“That sense of hustle and bustle is absent,” said Lee Mortensen, vice president of Downtown Greensboro Inc. “It’s inviting and charming. It’s welcoming.”

But, regardless of location, will shoppers be won over by all the come-ons?

“Retailers are hurt by the fact that consumers are still hurting,” said UNCG’s Brod. “Some will get good deals. But many are concerned about the economy or they are unemployed. Nobody is going to be getting away with anything. No one is going to have a wonderful economic Christmas.”

Contact Donald W. Patterson at 373-7027 or don.patterson@news-record.com