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North Carolina needs to enroll more students in its state university system. But it especially needs to keep students progressing all the way to graduation.

University of North Carolina system President Erskine Bowles began a push this fall to hold campuses more accountable for their student retention and graduation rates. The move potentially marks a "significant change" in policy, UNC Board of Governors Chairwoman Hannah Gage said at the board's September meeting.

For the first time, the system might link enrollment growth to academic goals and revise funding formulas to reward campuses that improve retention and graduation rates rather than just enroll more students.

A&T chancellor helps lead effort

The shift worries leaders at some campuses, but Harold Martin is a strong proponent. It's not surprising. He was Bowles' top academic officer in the UNC system before taking over as chancellor at N.C. A&T in June. From the beginning of his tenure in Greensboro, Martin has stressed the importance of improving academic quality and recruiting better students to the university. Bowles has appointed Martin, and UNCG Chancellor Linda Brady, to an advisory committee that over the next two to three months will come up with suggestions for setting new accountability standards.

Martin believes enrollment caps could be placed on some campuses where goals aren't met, possibly by 2012. It doesn't make sense to add students if they enter through a "revolving door" and soon drop out, he said.

A&T voluntarily took a step back after it enrolled a record 2,239 freshmen in the fall of 2005. Only 68.9 percent returned for their second year, a substantial drop from previous years. Freshman enrollment was scaled back to 2,074 in 2006 and 1,569 in 2007. But the retention rate for the 2007 class increased to 73.6 percent, the highest since 2001. A&T's goal is to reach a retention rate of 80 percent by 2012-13, which will be a challenge as enrollment is on the rise again.

UNCG believes access is important

UNCG's enrollment, meanwhile, has increased annually while retention rates have held relatively steady within a range of about 75 percent to 77 percent. UNCG also is expected to raise that to 80 percent within three years and already has implemented programs to improve performance, Provost David Perrin said Thursday.

While supporting those goals, Perrin said UNCG also wants to continue providing access to higher education for students from modest backgrounds.

The strongest predictors of college graduation, Perrin said, are family income and the educational level of a student's parents. Nearly half of UNCG students are first-generation college students, and hundreds come from families with poverty-level incomes -- high risk factors. UNCG could "change the profile" of its student body -- by admitting fewer high-risk students -- and improve its numbers, Perrin said. But that would deny access to many deserving young people.

At A&T, Martin doesn't advocate closing doors of opportunity but says the university must recruit students who are better prepared out of high school. At the same time, A&T will work closely with area community colleges to accept more students who have earned associate degrees and proven they're ready to complete work on a four-year degree at A&T.

If freshman enrollment is limited, Martin said, student body numbers still can grow with increased transfers from community colleges and greater retention rates. Financing could follow.

"Your incentive may very well be tied to enrollment growth related to retention and transfers from community colleges rather than just new freshmen," Martin said.

Only 35 percent finish in four years

The A&T chancellor anticipates "fruitful and meaningful conversations" on these subjects. They're overdue. The 17-campus UNC system is, in many ways, the envy of the nation. But only 35 percent of the freshmen who enter each fall actually graduate in four years, and fewer than 60 percent in six years. Higher education is too expensive to accept those numbers.

Part of the problem is inadequate preparation in high school. Part is that many students face financial obstacles. Part is that financial incentives for the universities themselves have been linked to enrollment rather than graduation. If they enroll more freshmen, their funding increases. If those freshmen drop out, they can be replaced by more freshmen the next year, with no loss to the university. But it's a loss for the students and the state.

Bowles' initiative is on target. The UNC system must keep the doors to higher education open but focus more than ever on making sure that when students leave, they have a diploma in hand.