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GREENSBORO — Demographics, not environmental factors, might explain an “elevated” number of pancreatic cancer cases near the White Street Landfill, according to the Guilford County Health Department.

A recent state study found that the number of pancreatic cancer cases in the area around the landfill and a former dump site nearby was higher than expected when compared to statewide figures.

However, the study did not take race into account. That’s a significant limitation, because the incidence of pancreatic cancer is much higher among black Americans than whites of similar ages, according to the National Institutes of Health. The age of residents in the area is close to the state average.

Disease rates vary by age, race, sex and other factors. If those aren’t taken into account, a specific area can appear to have elevated numbers when compared to a broader area with differing demographics. That suggests an environmental cause when in fact the demographics provide the explanation.

Karen Knight, director of the state’s central cancer registry, which generated the report, acknowledged the study has limitations when it comes to examining causes of cancer.

“Looking at a geographic area this small is really not a good way to figure that out,” she said.

Specifically, 53 percent of residents in the study area are black, compared to about 21 percent for the state as a whole, according to the Guilford County Health Department.

“This fact alone is likely to explain the 'elevated’ incidence of pancreatic cancer in the study area,” the department said.

The reason race wasn’t in the study was that the number of cases would have been too small to draw any statistically reliable conclusions, Knight said.

Specifically, the state looked at seven types of cancer in the area from 1990 to 2006. Only two types, pancreatic cancer and multiple myeloma, had a greater than expected number of cases, and the number of multiple myeloma cases was considered too small to be statistically significant.

While the study didn’t conclude that the landfill was a factor, it found 27 cases of pancreatic cancer, compared to the 13 that would be “expected” — if not for the missing demographic information.

Risk factors for pancreatic cancer include genetics, smoking and diabetes.

The health department also reviewed health measures in the area.

The area within 400 yards of the former dump site, known as the E.H. Glass Landfill, had an average cancer rate of 176.6 per 100,000 people for the years 2002 to 2006, compared to 176 for the county as a whole. The rate for residents living between 400 and 800 yards away was even lower.

The rates of pre-term and low-birthweight births were not significantly higher than those for the whole county, and the figures for the area closest to the dump nearly mirrored the countywide rates.

The health department also noted that residents in the area are on city water lines, which bring water from some distance away and that air from the landfill tends to blow away from nearby neighborhoods.

Based on those and other factors, “there is no health risk to residents living near the E.H. Glass property and ... further investigation, including community surveys, is unwarranted,” the report concluded.

The research into the area came after City Councilwoman Trudy Wade asked if evidence supported residents’ concerns.

The look into health issues comes amid debate about reopening the landfill, closed to household waste in 2006. Since then, the city has been spending millions annually to truck trash to Montgomery County.

Contact Jason Hardin at 373-7021 or jason.hardin@news-record.com