news-record.com

FONTANA, Calif. — The first four races in NASCAR's Sprint Cup title Chase eliminated the pretenders.

Goodbye, Brian Vickers.

See ya, Kasey Kahne.

Maybe next year, Ryan Newman and Denny Hamlin.

It's the next three races that will determine if anyone can end Jimmie Johnson's bid for a record fourth consecutive Cup championship.

Johnson heads into this stretch — Lowe's Motor Speedway, Martinsville and Talladega — 12 points ahead of Mark Martin. Juan Pablo Montoya is 58 points behind Johnson, and Tony Stewart is 84 points back. No one else is within 100 points of the leader.

Johnson has one of the best average finishes at Lowe's Motor Speedway and has won five of the last six races at Martinsville. If he comes close to repeating those results, he'll likely expand his points lead. The key will be by how much heading into Talladega on Nov. 1.

The bigger the gap, the more cushion he'll have at a track where anything can happen. Last year, nine of the 12 title contenders were involved in wrecks. Johnson was among them, but his car suffered only slight damage and he later drove through two more accidents to expand his points lead that day. He was helped when a 12-car wreck included six contenders.

A driver likely needs to be within 100 points of the series leader going to Talladega to have a realistic shot at the title. Of course, drivers trailing by that much will have to hope the points leader has a poor finish and scores few points that day.

If the points leader leaves Talladega with a healthy lead, there's only three races to catch him. Should Johnson have a big lead after Talladega, then teammate Jeff Gordon's comments from Sunday likely will come true: "Unless they make a mistake, I don't see how they lose it."

l While anything still can happen in six races, Montoya likely will need to win at least one race if he wants to have a chance at the championship.

He's the only driver to finish in the top five in each of the first four Chase races, yet he's further off the lead now than he was entering the Chase.

Montoya's rise has been remarkable, considering he could have fallen out of a Chase spot at Richmond, the cutoff event. His team brought new cars to the track each of the first three races — no one else did that — and Sunday used the same car he dominated with at Indianapolis before a pit-road speeding penalty ruined his chances of winning the Brickyard. The team and Montoya are hanging in there, but a win would help close the gap.

"It would be nice if we can get a freaking win soon and we can move on," Montoya said.

l Keep an eye on Stewart. He's lurking in this Chase. His fifth-place finish at California was a remarkable rally from falling a lap down after he was caught speeding on pit road.

While Johnson's record at the next two tracks is impressive, don't forget that Stewart's first win with his team came in the All-Star race at Lowe's Motor Speedway. He also has six top-10s in the last eight races at Martinsville.

l Gordon has scored back-to-back runner-up finishes and few are talking about him. His problem is, despite those great runs, he's only gained 17 points on the series leader in that time and remains 105 points back. That shows how difficult it can be to gain ground once a driver falls behind.

Sunday, seven of the top 10 finishers were Chase drivers. At least seven title contenders have finished in the top 10 in each of the first four Chase races.

Contact Dustin Long at 373-7062 or dustin.long@news-record.com