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SPORTS

Rookies, former champs tangle in Chase

Wednesday, September 16, 2009
(Updated 9:30 am)

Variety is the catchphrase for this year’s Chase for the Sprint Cup.

So many storylines. So much action on the track. So much off it.

Jimmie Johnson is going for a record fourth consecutive championship. Tony Stewart is attempting to be the first owner-driver to win a Cup crown since Alan Kulwicki in 1992. Mark Martin seeks his first title in his first season back full-time after running a partial schedule the past two seasons.

This field features four former champions: Johnson, Stewart, Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch. The field also has two Chase rookies: Juan Pablo Montoya and Brian Vickers.

And this Chase even has Richard Petty in the form of Richard Petty Motorsports, and the legacy of Dale Earnhardt in Earnhardt Ganassi Racing.

So many possibilities. So many things to ponder. Here are five key questions to consider before the Chase begins Sunday at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

1. Who are the key people in this year’s Chase?

None of the above. It’s those who you don’t often see, the directors of competition.

Ken Howes, whose background is in Formula 1, carries that title at Hendrick Motorsports. Bobby Hutchens has that position at Stewart-Haas Racing and played a significant role in turning that team from one that struggled into a winning organization. Former championship crew chief Jimmy Makar has a similar role at Joe Gibbs Racing.

The champion is likely to come from those three organizations. How those men prepare their teams for this title run will play a key role in who wins.

2. What is the key track in the Chase?

It’s always easy to say Talladega because so much can happen there. But Talladega is even more critical since it has been pushed back in the schedule. It used to be the third or fourth race in the Chase. This year, it is race No. 7, giving teams less time to recover from getting caught in an accident there.

Two of the previous five years of the Chase, the points leader changed at Talladega. It could happen again.

3. Who has the most to lose?

Kurt Busch.

He’ll have a new crew chief next season with Pat Tryson leaving after this year to work with Martin Truex Jr.

New crew chief-driver combinations are hard to predict and if things don’t click immediately, it makes earning a spot in the Chase more difficult.

Plus Penske Racing looks to be the only Dodge team for 2010. That means less information coming in and more reliance on teammates.

Busch will have rookie Brad Keselowski and Sam Hornish Jr., who is improving but still battling inconsistency, as teammates. How much information they provide will be vital.

4. Three of the past five years, the winner of the opening race of the Chase hadn’t won a race that season. Will it happen again?

Don’t count on it. Among the four Chase drivers who have yet to win this year — Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, Juan Pablo Montoya and Ryan Newman — Edwards has the best average finish at the track at 13.5. Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Mark Martin and Tony Stewart all have a better average finish at that track than Edwards.

5. Who wins the championship?

Jimmie Johnson will be looked upon by many to be the favorite to win a fourth title considering his Chase record — 14 wins in 50 races, an astounding .280 winning percentage. Others will look to Tony Stewart, who led the points much of the season. Jeff Gordon says he’s pleased with his team’s performance in the last month leading to the Chase. Denny Hamlin is coming on strong.

All are good choices, but not the best. The champion will be Mark Martin. His performance has been strong all year. The only hiccup has been issues that have ruined good runs, whether it was engine issues early in the year, running out of fuel or being in an accident. He’ll avoid those problems and win his first Cup title, completing a storybook season.

Contact Dustin Long at 373-7062 or dustin.long@news-record.com

DUSTIN LONG'S PICKS

Staff writer Dustin Long’s predictions for who will finish where in the Chase:

1. Mark Martin: It’s his time. Performance is there. Finishes will match.

2. Jimmie Johnson: Time to share the wealth.

3. Denny Hamlin: Hamlin could prove to be a formidable challenger with the way he’s run lately.

4. Tony Stewart: His performance has dropped recently, but expect him to pick it back up in the Chase.

5. Juan Pablo Montoya: Montoya is not strong enough yet to win a title but his steady performance will result in a good finish.

6. Jeff Gordon: He has not led as often as expected, and needs help to win fifth title.

7. Kurt Busch: Busch just has not shown the consistent ability to score top-five finishes.

8. Brian Vickers: He had a great run to get into the Chase but odds will catch up to him and he’ll likely encounter some problems.

9. Carl Edwards: The Roush Fenway Racing program is off, and Edwards would need a quick turnaround to challenge for title.

10. Ryan Newman: Up and down since a dominant stretch in the spring. If he can repeat that stretch of good finishes, he’s got a shot. That’s a big if, though.

11. Greg Biffle: Woes of Roush Fenway Racing keep Biffle toward the bottom.

12. Kasey Kahne: The team is looking to finish its merger with Yates Racing. So how does one challenge for a title as folks at his shop worry about their jobs? You don’t.

Accompanying Photos

Scott K. Brown (Associated Press)

Photo Caption: The Sprint Cup Chase drivers after the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series' Chevy Rock & Roll 400 auto race Saturday at Richmond International Raceway.

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