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Issuing a fall foliage forecast can be about as hard as predicting the weather. That’s because sunshine, rainfall and temperatures affect leaf colors.

“You really aren’t sure until the fall season arrives,” said Dick Thomas, executive director of the Piedmont Environmental Center in High Point. “Very few things in nature are hard, cold fact.”

That said, if current weather conditions hold, Thomas believes “we’ll be treated to a beautiful fall.”

Beginning Sept. 29, he’ll post weekly reports about leaf conditions in the Piedmont for the state’s travel site, www.visitnc.com.

Howie Neufeld, a biology professor at Appalachian State University, will do the same for the mountains.

By adding Thomas’ reports this year, state officials say they want to stress the fact that colorful leaves aren’t just a high-country phenomenon.

“The Piedmont has some spectacular areas for fall foliage,” Thomas said. “High Point City Lake is just gorgeous in the fall.”

Locally, leaves should reach their peak in late October or early November, a week or two later than they will in the mountains.

Neufeld says he’s expecting good fall color there, too — about an 8 on a scale of 1 to 10 — provided the weather cooperates.

If September produces cool, sunny days and cool nights, then the colors will be bright. If it’s warm and rainy, then they’ll be muted because the trees won’t produce as much sugar and the leaves won’t be as red.

Neufeld says the leaves might turn early this year, perhaps as much as a week or two. He says he’s already noticed changes around Boone.

“In the last week, it’s started to pick up,” he said. “(But) it’s not gotten full steam yet.”

Neufeld and Thomas won’t be the only ones providing leaf reports this year.

Starting Sept. 29, residents can post their observations by Twitter @visitnc and www.facebook.com/northcarolina.

“Anybody can chime in,” said Susan Dosier, public relations director for LKM, a Charlotte firm that handles marketing for the N.C. Division of Tourism, Film and Sports Development. “That is definitely a first.”
 

Contact Donald W. Patterson at 373-7027 or don.patterson@news-record.com