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GREENSBORO — The Triad economy is emerging from the recession and should see growth for the rest of the year, the author of a new report from UNCG said Tuesday.

“All the signs I see at the national level point to recovery, so I think the Triad is moving overall with the national tide,” said Don Jud, professor emeritus at the Bryan School of Business and Economics.

The Triad Business Index, a monthly report from the university, grew by 0.2 percent, the first month-to-month growth since April 2008.

Jud, who compiles the Triad Business Index, said improving building permits and employment are bright spots. Residential building permits, for example, grew by 4.5 percent from June to July. Likewise, service-producing jobs, which represent a large part of the local economy, grew slightly during July.

Overall unemployment, however, at 11.3 percent, won’t improve immediately.

“That’s going to be awhile. ... ,” Jud said. “By the end of the year, I think we’re even going to see some improvement in that.”

Nationally, Jud said a new figure out Tuesday is likely to affect the Triad as well: The ISM, a trade group of purchasing executives, said its manufacturing index rose to 52.9 in August, from 48.9 in July. It’s the first reading above 50, which indicates expansion, since January 2008. “That’s very big,” Jud said.

Although the Triad Business Index increased by 0.2 percent in July, business activity in the state remained unchanged and has declined 1.8 percent over the past year. The Triad Business Index is compiled by measuring employment levels, building permits and retail sales, among other factors.

The U.S. economy grew by 0.6 percent in July, suggesting that it is entering a recovery.

UNCG reported that regional employment rose from 347,200 to 347,600. It’s a small gain, but it shows that new hires are finally beginning to keep pace with layoffs, which for years have steadily eroded growth in the region.

In addition to positive employment, retail sales rose a fraction to boost the index. Total retail sales in the region rose from $1.524 billion in June to $1.527 billion in July.

Jud said this month’s report is a relief because “we’ve gone for so long with just negative things to say.”

Contact Richard M. Barron at 373-7371 or richard.barron@news-record.com