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Double-digit unemployment rates remained the norm in the Triad in June even though some counties in the region saw their jobless numbers fall slightly.

In most counties and metro areas the percentage of people unemployed continued to rise last month, hitting 11.7 percent in Guilford and 12.1 percent in Greensboro-High Point.

“It doesn’t look good,” said Don Jud, professor emeritus at the Bryan School of Business and Economics at UNCG. “There’s no good news in those numbers.”

Across the state, 73 counties posted double-digit unemployment rates, the Employment Security Commission of North Carolina reported Friday. In 40 of those counties, rates hit 12 percent or higher.

Overall, rates rose in 56 counties, declined in 32 and stayed the same in 12. But they rose in the state’s three largest metropolitan statistical areas — Charlotte, Raleigh and Greensboro-High Point.

Researchers say about 60 percent of the state’s work force lives in those areas.
“North Carolina’s largest metropolitan areas are its growth engines, but right now they are sputtering,” said John Quinterno, a principal at South by North Strategies, a research firm specializing in economic and social policy in Chapel Hill. “No meaningful recovery will occur until the major metros begin growing again.”

Most experts aren’t willing to predict when that will occur, but they tend to agree it won’t be any time soon.

“The June employment figures provide more evidence that a long, jobless recovery is taking shape in North Carolina,” Quinterno said. “Without increased demand for goods and services, employers will add positions at an anemic pace.”

Even if the national economy does begin to grow in the third and fourth quarters, as some economists predict, a recovery could take longer in the Triad.

That’s because the Greensboro-High Point area continues to struggle because of its dependence on manufacturing. In that segment alone, the area has lost more than 7,000 jobs in the past 12 months.

Job losses also have been high in the transportation and construction areas. Overall, the area has lost nearly 22,000 jobs in the past year.

And more will follow.

Economists say that as demand for products picks up, employers initially work existing employees longer hours until they see orders move even higher. Then they begin to add staff.

At the same time, as the economy begins to turn, those who have given up looking for work will re-enter the job market

“It wouldn’t be surprising that the unemployment rate could move up for the next six months or longer,” Jud said.

Quinterno says he’s even more pessimistic.

“We may stop losing jobs, (but) I don’t see anything out there that is going to reverse the pattern,” he said. “I don’t see anything out there that is capable of fueling rapid job creation anytime soon. I would say six to 12 months. It may be even longer than that.”

Yet officials at the Employment Security Commission offer a note of optimism.

They point out two area counties saw unemployment rates fall last month. The rate in Rockingham fell from 14.2 percent to 13.8; it dipped in Davidson from 13.4 percent to 13.3.

And they add that rates usually spike in May and June because people graduating from high school and college enter the job market.

“Maybe there is more improvement than we are able to see right now,” said Robert Ware, regional ESC manager in Greensboro. “ ... To me, that is just sort of another indication that things appear to be moderating some. We are still seeing layoffs and closings, but it is not like it was six months ago.”
 

Contact Donald W. Patterson at 373-7027 or don.patterson@news-record.com