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The annual growth rate of the Triad’s major cities continues to lag significantly behind Raleigh, Durham and Charlotte, according to new U.S. Census data.

Other projections indicate that trend could continue for at least the next two decades, which would increase the likelihood Greensboro will lose its position as the state’s third-largest city.

For the period July 1, 2007, to July 1, 2008, Greensboro’s growth rate slowed to 2 percent compared to 2.4 percent for the previous 12 months.

In the meantime, cities in the state’s other major metropolitan areas showed much stronger growth rates: Raleigh, 3.8 percent; Durham, 3 percent; and Charlotte, 2.7 percent.

In the Triad, High Point grew by 1.5 percent and Winston-Salem by 1.4 percent.

“Within the Triad, we are doing well,” said Keith Debbage, professor of urban geography at UNCG. “When we look at our neighbors to the east, we are not.”

With an estimated population of 250,642, Greensboro now ranks as the nation’s 75th-largest city, just behind Glendale, Ariz., and down a position from the previous year.

Census data also show Greensboro dropped from the nation’s 38th-fastest growing city to the 45th last year.

For some, that’s a satisfactory showing.

“Most people want sustainable, manageable growth,” said Don Jud, professor emeritus at the Bryan School of Business and Economics at UNCG. “That’s what we have here.”

And while most agree they don’t want the city to balloon like Cary, the nation’s third- fastest growing city (6.9 percent), some want to see the local growth rate higher.

“You would like to see it more at 3 or 4 percent,” Debbage said. “That’s a sign of a healthy, robust economy that is not overheating.”

In recent years, there’s been no worry about that.

From 2000 to 2008, Greensboro’s growth rate came in at 9.8 percent, compared to 11.3 percent for Guilford County and 14.7 percent for the state.

That’s an average of just more than 1 percentage point a year.

In the early part of the decade, Greensboro suffered a local recession because of a loss of manufacturing jobs, particularly in the textile industry.

“We had modestly begun to turn the corner,” Debbage said. “Then we got hit flat on our back by the national recession.”

Debbage said it could take five to 10 years to recover those lost jobs.

As bookend recessions, as Debbage puts it, have hit Greensboro, Durham has continued to gain ground on the Gate City.

In 1980, Greensboro had 54,000 more people than Durham. By 2008, that gap nearly had been cut in half.

Since 1980, both cities have annexed about 60 square miles.

But since 2000, Durham has added population at nearly twice the rate of Greensboro.

Looking ahead, state officials don’t anticipate any significant population spurts locally.

The Office of State Budget and Management projects that Guilford County will show a slight uptick in its growth rate in the coming years but will remain at or below the state average through 2029.

Currently, 34 of the state’s 100 counties are growing faster than Guilford.

“Slower (population) growth is normally reflective of slower job growth,” Jud said. “People are more likely to move where the jobs are.”

For William T. Markham, a sociology professor at UNCG, that’s the key word — jobs.

“Greensboro’s leadership is so fixated on attracting more people to the city,” Markham said. “What’s really important is whether the people who live here have jobs and whether the jobs pay well and whether we maintain our good quality of life. ... I am not convinced that has anything to do with rapid growth.”

Contact Donald W. Patterson at 373-7027 or don.patterson@news-record.com