A title Chase without Kyle Busch? Or how about one without Daytona 500 champ Matt Kenseth, who has never missed a Chase? Or one without any cars from either Joe Gibbs Racing or Richard Childress Racing?
Ten races before the 12-man title field is set and those are some of the possible scenarios in what could be quite a scramble just to contend for the NASCAR Sprint Cup title.
While few drivers typically fall out of a Chase spot this late in the season, this year could be different. Drivers seventh through 16th in the standings are separated by 157 points, which can be made up before the field is set after Richmond in September. Four drivers are within 65 points of 12th place.
Among those in jeopardy of falling out of the top 12 are the season's winningest drivers -- Busch and Mark Martin with three wins each.
Busch is ninth in the standings, 48 points ahead of 13th-place Kasey Kahne, who won Sunday's race at Infineon Raceway. Although Busch has led the most laps this season, his position is tenuous because he's scored two top-10 finishes in the last 11 races. His problems could be getting worse.
The series heads this weekend to New Hampshire Motor Speedway, which has given Busch fits. Since his win there in 2006, he's finished 25th or worse in three of the last five races. Then it's off to Daytona where anything can happen, just as it did in the Daytona 500. Busch dominated that race before he was involved in an accident and finished 41st. If his struggles continue at New Hampshire and he again is collected in a crash at Daytona, he might be out of the top 12 next month.
Busch's woes are just part of some struggles at Joe Gibbs Racing. The team has been good at times but not often at the finish. Denny Hamlin's fifth-place finish Sunday at Infineon Raceway helped him climb three spots to seventh in the standings, but there's work to do with that organization.
"We're not in horrible shape, we've just got to do a better job capitalizing," says team president J.D. Gibbs. "We've got to be prepared when (the Chase begins) you're ready to go."
Another driver teetering on the edge is Martin, who is 11th in the season standings, 12 points ahead of Kahne. Martin's 35th-place finish Sunday marked the fifth time he's placed 30th or worse this season.
New Hampshire also could be a challenge for Martin. He has not raced there since 2006, his last year competing full time before this season.
Another driver in danger of falling out of the top 10 is Kenseth. A late rally Sunday -- he gained 21 spots in the last 20 laps to finish 18th -- salvaged his day after a crash midway through the race. Kenseth is 10th in the standings, 43 points ahead of Kahne.
For as bad as some drivers have it, no one has it worse than car owner Richard Childress. Last year, his three teams all finished in the top six in points. He added a fourth car in the offseason. All four are outside the top 12 after Jeff Burton fell out Sunday. Burton remains the highest Childress car at 15th but his steady slide -- three finishes of 25th or worse in the last five races -- is worrisome. Clint Bowyer is 16th with Casey Mears 21st and Kevin Harvick 25th.
Adding to Childress' challenges is General Motors has cut some support to Cup teams. Childress vowed it would not impact performance but it could prove challenging to back up that declaration.
As for Dale Earnhardt Jr., who is 20th in the standings, he would need the greatest comeback since the Chase was created just to make it. He's 277 points out of 12th. Kenseth came back from 271 points down at this time in the season in 2005. He's the only driver who was more than 190 points behind after 16 races to make it.
A Chase possibly without Earnhardt, Busch and Kenseth. Could you have imagined that entering this season? It just might become reality.
Contact Dustin Long at 373-7062 or dustin.long@news-record.com
Sprint Cup
What: Lenox Industrial Tools 301
Where: New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Loudon, N.H.
Time/TV: 2 p.m. Sunday/TNT
Qualifying/TV: 3 p.m. Friday/Speed
Nationwide Series
What: Camping World RV Sales 200
Where: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Time/TV: 3 p.m. Saturday/WXLV-45
Qualifying/TV: 10 a.m. Saturday/Speed
Camping World Truck Series
What: MemphisTravel.com 200
Where: Memphis Motorsports Park, Memphis, Tenn.
Time/TV: 6 p.m. Saturday/Speed
Qualifying/TV: 2 p.m. Saturday/SpeedThe Race to Make the Chase
A look at those in the top 12 in points and those trying to get into the top 12 to compete for the Sprint Cup title beginning in September.
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