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Gas prices have climbed past the $2 mark in the Triad for the first time since November and should continue to rise through Memorial Day.

But the long-term forecast indicates that fuel costs should remain in check this summer.

“The bigger deal is that we don’t expect to pay $3 a gallon this summer,” said Doug MacIntyre, a senior oil analyst for the Energy Information Administration in Washington. “We don’t expect a big change in crude oil prices one way or the other.”

On average, MacIntyre said, oil used by U.S. refineries has risen about $17 a barrel since December. That translates to about a 42-cents-a-gallon increase in the price at the pump.

If oil prices remain in the $50 range, he said, gasoline should cost about $2.25 a gallon for self-serve regular by the end of May.

Statewide, gas prices averaged $1.56 on Jan. 2. Since then, the cost might drop a penny one day but shoot up two cents the next.

“It’s sort of like a little roller coaster,” said Tom Crosby, vice president of communication for AAA Carolinas in Charlotte. “But it will keep rising right on through Memorial Day. It’s typical for this time of year.”

In the Triad, prices averaged $2.01 Thursday, up 17 cents in the past month. A year ago, area motorists paid an average of $3.24 a gallon.

Across the region, according to one Web site, prices ranged from $1.88 at a RaceWay store in Thomasville to $2.19 at a Marathon station in High Point.

Statewide, prices Thursday averaged $2.02, compared with $2.04 nationally.

Contact Donald W. Patterson at 373-7027 or don.patterson@news-record.com