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RALEIGH — This much is certain about the budget Gov. Bev Perdue will roll out today: You won’t like it.

As she promised to increase or shelter spending in education and economic development programs over the past week, Perdue has also warned that deep cuts are coming.

“If your bailiwick doesn’t involve one of these two priorities, there are bad times ahead for you in the budget,” Perdue told a group of the state’s top education officials Monday.

Technically, the governor’s budget proposal is merely a recommendation she sends to the General Assembly. But because it serves as a starting point for debate and Perdue has the loudest bully pulpit in the state — along with a veto — her proposal carries weight. Legislators and the governor normally try to reach a budget accord before the new tax and spending plan is due to take effect July 1.

In the plan she’s to submit today, Perdue must bridge what is projected to be a $3.4 billion budget deficit. Only $1.7 billion of that gap might be covered by federal stimulus funds next year, leaving nearly $2 billion that must be closed by either cutting spending or raising taxes.

Perdue has signaled that she has little appetite for broad-based tax increases, such as sales or income taxes. But legislators and lobbyists widely expect the governor to propose increases in cigarette and alcohol taxes. But even steep increases in those taxes and closing some tax loopholes for corporations would eliminate only a fraction of the expected shortfall.

“If she’s not going to raise significant revenue, she’s definitely telling the truth about the pain that would come if the General Assembly enacts her cuts,” said Chris Fitzsimon, the executive director of N.C. Policy Watch, a liberal government watchdog group based in Raleigh.

Agencies that deal with health and human services such as the public mental health safety net, the environment and corrections, including the prison system and programs that provide alternatives to incarceration, should expect to see significant cuts, Fitzsimon said.

Perdue has highlighted only  a few areas where she plans to spend more. They include:

* Improvements to the probation system, which has recently been criticized for losing track of people on parole.

* Support programs for the National Guard. Perdue used a recorded speech distributed over the Internet to announce she would, among other things,  recommend spending $2 million on National Guard family assistance centers.

* Per-pupil spending in kindergarten through 12th grade, mainly by funding teacher salaries.

* Funding enrollment growth at the state’s university system.

* A basket of economic development programs, including job retraining and job recruitment programs.

But even in areas where Perdue says she will spend more, there will be cuts, she warned.

For example, Perdue said she would propose raising education spending by 2.5 percent.

But to get to the $350 million increase her budget is expected to propose, Perdue will have to rely on federal stimulus spending, some of which will go directly to school districts rather than being controlled by the state.

And though spending on teachers and assistant teachers will increase, she said, central-office funding — both at the Department of Public Instruction in Raleigh and local school system offices — will be cut.

Locally, Guilford County Schools officials say they’re pleased the governor is making education a priority but are waiting to see her final budget proposal before ruling out any options, including laying off teachers.

According to a district spokeswoman, some of the administrative job cuts Superintendent Maurice “Mo” Green has outlined in his strategic plan for the school system could fill the gap of any state funding cuts that may affect the central office.

Mark Jewell of the Guilford County Association of Educators said he thought that Perdue made it clear Monday that teacher layoffs would not be needed.

“I tell everyone there’s no reason to panic yet,” he said.
 

Staff writer Brian Ewing contributed.
 

Contact Mark Binker at (919) 832-5549 or mark.binker@news-record.com