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FONTANA, Calif. — So who is going to miss this year's title Chase?

Whoa, slow down, you say. It's way too early to be pondering this.

Not really.

Although more than six months remain until the Chase for the Sprint Cup begins, Sunday's race at Auto Club Speedway suggests who will be championship contenders — and who won't be.

Since 2005, seven of the top-10 finishers at the California track's February race, on average, have gone on to make the Chase. That's a slightly better indicator than upcoming races at Las Vegas (on average 6.7 of top-10 finishers make Chase) and Atlanta (6.2 of top 10 finishers).

These tracks matter because nearly one third of the 26 races used to set the Chase field are run at similar facilities — tracks that are 1.5 to 2 miles in length and require high horsepower and good handling. Falter at these places and that's a lot of points given up to competitors.

So if California's average holds true and only seven of Sunday's top 10 finishers make the Chase, there could be some popular drivers not racing for a championship come September.

Consider Sunday's top 10 featured five former series champions: Race winner Matt Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch and Tony Stewart. Two other drivers, Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle, have each finished second in the points since the Chase's inception in 2004. The remaining three drivers? Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Brian Vickers.

Who are the three among that group who could miss the Chase?

Here's a little help.

The California winner has gone on to finish no worse than fourth in the season standings since 2005. That's a good sign for Matt Kenseth, even though he's working with his third crew chief in the past three seasons.

"I was more confident coming into this year than I have been in a lot of seasons," said Kenseth, the first driver since 1997 to win the season's first two races. "I just feel great about the group we have assembled."

OK, here's another clue on who makes the Chase.

Only once has a driver finished in the top three at California the past four years and not made the Chase. So besides Kenseth, that would seem to make Gordon and Kyle Busch safe bets.

Despite seeing his winless streak extended to 43 points races, Gordon says he feels better, physically and about his race team.

"I've worked harder over this offseason getting myself in shape than I have in a long time," said Gordon, who finished second Sunday. "I'm refocused.

"I feel better today going in and after the race than I felt in a long time. I've battled some back issues and some different things. I've been working really hard on those things. It's paying off. I mean, I just feel good when I get in the car. The car is driving good. It's just starting off right. I think we only have room for improvement."

Fine, but who isn't going to make the Chase, you say.

Only once in the four years has the race's sixth-place finisher made the Chase. Maybe it's anomaly but for Hamlin fans beware, he finished sixth Sunday.

Hamlin, though, doesn't buy into such a notion.

"Even without testing, we are really starting to put ourselves into a good position this season," he said.

Many of you might pick Vickers to miss the Chase since he's the only one in the top 10 who has not challenged for a Cup title, but be careful. Remember he won the pole, then had to start at the rear of the field after an engine change and still scored a top-10 finish.

Well, then, who?

Some experts discounted Stewart entering this season because he changed teams, taking part ownership in an organization that had struggled. Stewart is off to a great start. His eighth-place finish has him tied for third in the points with Kurt Busch. The question is if Stewart's team can keep going like this.

"We've done it two weeks in a row now, but I mean, it's still a little early to tell," Stewart said, "but I thought this was a truer test than last week was."

This is not easy. No cheating. So far, no more than eight drivers in the top 10 of a February California race made the Chase; you can't pick everyone to make the Chase.

So who will miss out?

Contact Dustin Long at 373-7062 or dustin.long@news-record.com