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Dustin Long's NASCAR predictions

Sunday, February 8, 2009
(Updated Tuesday, February 10 - 1:08 pm)

No testing at NASCAR tracks makes handicapping this season more difficult. Plenty of question marks remain. Then again, in 10 previous years, I've never picked the champion correctly at the start of the season. So beware.

But maybe this is my year.

Here's this season's predictions. Celebrate I didn't pick your driver or curse that I did.

1. Carl Edwards: His time is now. Roush Fenway Racing looks to be as strong as it has in years. Key will be restrictor-plate tracks. Had one top-15 finish in four such races last year and that ruined his title chances.

2. Denny Hamlin: Struck by inconsistency last year with six finishes of 38th or worse, but 12 top-five finishes. If he regains the consistency, the Toyota power could make him a title threat.

3. Kevin Harvick: One win in two seasons does not a title contender make, but there's a sense things will be different at Richard Childress Racing this year. If the team can't find more speed, Harvick will not challenge.

4. Jimmie Johnson: At some point, he has to go a year without winning a championship? Doesn't he?

5. Kyle Busch: Building a reputation of under-performing in the Chase. A strong run will quiet such talk.

6. Mark Martin: If championships were based on enthusiasm, Martin would win. He's that excited about being at Hendrick. Let's see if he can back it up.

7. Jeff Gordon: No wins in 2008. A fluke or is his career declining? Bet fluke and look for him to win races again this year.

8. Greg Biffle: Under-appreciated driver looking to become first to win titles in the truck, Nationwide and Cup series. Only needs Cup crown.

9. David Ragan: With how much he improved last year, you can't leave him off this list. Now he has to show he can race for wins and top-fives consistently.

10. Matt Kenseth: Faces same questions as Gordon but has a new crew chief. That creates some uncertainty. Could shock some and challenge for crown.

11. Brian Vickers: There's a vibe this Red Bull team is on the cusp of something great. If this team continues to show improvement, he will make the Chase.

12. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Has got to prove he can be strong late in a race and late in the season without fading. If not, he will be celebrated in name only.

One who won't make the Chase: Tony Stewart. It's always dangerous to bet against Stewart because that's when he's his best. Still this team was awful last year. New ownership will help but not enough to make the Chase.

2008 PREDICTIONS

1. Jeff Gordon

2. Carl Edwards

3. Jimmie Johnson

4. Kevin Harvick

5. Ryan Newman

6. Tony Stewart

7. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

8. Matt Kenseth

9. Kurt Busch

10. Clint Bowyer

11. Denny Hamlin

12. Jamie McMurray

2008 FINISH

1. Jimmie Johnson

2. Carl Edwards

3. Greg Biffle

4. Kevin Harvick

5. Clint Bowyer

6. Jeff Burton

7. Jeff Gordon

8. Denny Hamlin

9. Tony Stewart

10. Kyle Busch

11. Matt Kenseth

12. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

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