The economy is in the toilet. So, do yourself a favor and ease up on the accelerator.
That's the indirect message of a recent study by two economists, who found that when government revenues dry up, police write more speeding tickets. After analyzing 14 years of data in North Carolina, the pair found that for every 1 percent drop in government revenue, the number of traffic tickets issued per capita increases by 30 percent the following year.
"It's significant," said University of Arkansas-Little Rock economics professor Gary Wagner, who co-authored Red Ink in the Rearview Mirror: Local Fiscal Conditions and the Issuance of Traffic Tickets. "If there was no revenue for issuing tickets, I wouldn't expect the unemployment rate and revenue to be related."
The study, which analyzed data from 1989 to 2003, found the lowest number of tickets issued in North Carolina was in 2000, after nearly a decade of economic growth. There were roughly 645,000 tickets written that year. The highest number of tickets came two years later, when governments were trying to recover from the post 9-11 recession, and issued roughly 768,000.
Wagner said the study reinforced a theory held universally by economists: Incentives matter.
"If local governments are somehow involved in the revenue that gets generated, there's an incentive to get more revenue," Wagner said.
For some, the idea of government relying on lead-footed drivers to balance the budget isn't a revelation. We warn one another about small-town speed traps, and it's widely assumed tickets are being written with more than just public safety in mind.
Wagner said there are numerous anecdotes nationwide of such practices, such as the mayor of Nashville, Tenn., proposing two years ago a 33 percent increase in ticket revenue in his budget.
Wagner's co-author, Thomas Garrett, is an assistant vice president at the St. Louis Federal Reserve. North Carolina was chosen as a case study because the state had good data.
During the study period, North Carolina issued 11 tickets for every 100 residents. Dare County had the highest rate, at 29 per 100. Caldwell County was the lowest, at 6 per 100.
The N.C. Association of Chiefs of Police couldn't be reached for comment. Some police officers were skeptical.
Robert Fey, a spokesman for the Charlotte-Mecklenburg Police Department, said the study isn't true.
"Absolutely not," Fey said. "I've been stopped by friends and family who think there is such a thing as a quota, and that's illegal. We write citations to enforce traffic laws. It's a good conspiracy theory. It doesn't exist in Charlotte-Mecklenburg."
Wagner said his research doesn't imply police departments have quotas. He speculates the increase in tickets might be the result of more people tasked with enforcement or more people are given tickets instead of warnings.
One Matthews officer said he doesn't believe government relies on tickets in hard times.
"I've never heard anyone say 'We need to write more tickets,'" said officer Stason Tyrell. "We don't get the revenue."
Ticket fines in North Carolina go to the county school district in which the ticket was issued. But Wagner said revenue that once funded schools can be replaced with speeding ticket revenue. That transfer could then free up tax revenue for other departments, including police.
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