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This month marks the 50th anniversary of the Cuban revolution and Fidel Castro's seizure of power on Jan. 1, 1959. Castro has outlasted every American president beginning with Dwight Eisenhower, but I'm going to make a bold prediction:

Before Barack Obama's first term ends, the United States will abolish its trade embargo against Cuba (imposed in 1960) and re-establish diplomatic relations (broken off in 1961). For decades our government has barred Americans from traveling to Cuba except under restricted conditions. I predict that policy will be abolished.

I also predict that American tourists will flock there in droves. Cuba is only 90 miles off the coast of Florida and endowed with beautiful beaches, historic (but crumbling) Spanish architecture and friendly people. On my two trips to Cuba, I never met a rude Cuban, even when I fiercely argued against communism.

In the old days, Cuba was a mere two-hour ferry ride from Florida. It was a favorite spot for vacationers, honeymooners and casino fans. Today, you could leave Miami via speed boat in late afternoon and arrive in Havana for dinner that night. If, of course, our government allowed it.

During the past 50 years, there have been thaws, off and on, in Cuban-American relations. President Carter opened a Cuban Interest Section in Havana. It's not the same as a U.S. embassy but at least a presence. President Clinton loosened the travel ban to permit tourists to visit Cuba under the guise of "cultural exchange groups."

But President George W. Bush tightened the screws on travel and severely limited money that could sent to Cubans on the island. Bush and his brother Jeb, a former Florida governor, wanted the votes of Cuban Americans in Florida.

Bush's hard-line policies have not driven Castro from power. True, the 82-year-old dictator is ailing and hasn't been seen in public in nearly two years, but he's still the power behind the throne that his brother, Raul, now occupies.

So why am I optimistic that dramatic change is brewing for U.S.-Cuban relations? And why does it matter? For starters, Obama has promised change. During the presidential debates, he boldly pledged to talk to our enemies and specifically to the Cuban leadership. "It is a disgrace that we have not spoken to them," he said of Cuba, North Korea, Iran and other enemies.

Second, the huge Cuban-American community in voter-rich Florida has undergone a stark change in attitude. In years past, the old guard, many of whom were born in Cuba, overwhelmingly favored the embargo. But the old guard is dying and being replaced by a younger generation.

An opinion survey last month conducted by Florida International University found that 55 percent of Cubans living in Florida favor ending the trade embargo. This is a milestone. It marks the first time a majority of Cuban Americans wants to restore normal relations with Cuba. So now it is politically safe for Obama to shelve our failed policy toward Cuba.

Also making it easier to change policies is Castro, who has faded from sight and whose illness suggests his life is finally ending. All of which makes it easier psychologically to say: We won, he lost.

But why is it important to normalize U.S.-Cuban relations? Three primary reasons: humanitarian, economic, ideological.

Humanitarian: U.S. policy has divided families for decades, making travel to Cuba difficult and limiting financial aid. Some have compared our policy to the Berlin Wall that once divided German families.

Economic: American businesses are itching to invest in Cuba. The Spanish, Italians and Germans have no trade embargo and are already there, but our government has denied U.S. business the chance. American agribusiness is especially eager to sell agricultural products to Cuba, which now imports nearly 70 percent of its food.

Ideological: Opening Cuba to American tourists would expose Cubans to democratic ideas and values. Cubans have lived in isolation for decades and been bombarded by Castro's propaganda. It's time to expose Cubans to democratic values that would travel with Americans.

For those reasons, I predict that bold changes are in the works for Cuban-American relations. After 50 years, it's high time.

Rosemary Roberts writes a column every other week for the News & Record. E-mail: rmroberts@triad.rr.com