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Private colleges in North Carolina are looking toward 2009 with a wary eye.

Heavily dependent on tuition and investment funds that have taken a beating in the past few months, private universities are bracing for tough times. Some are freezing hiring, delaying construction, cutting course offerings and trimming some part-time faculty.

Their biggest fear is that come spring, prospective students frightened by the economic situation will take their money to cheaper public universities and community colleges or stay away from college altogether. And students who do choose private colleges are likely to need more financial aid.

Leaders are scouring budgets and making contingency plans. Even the wealthiest campuses aren't immune. The value of Duke University's endowment declined by 19 percent - a drop of $1 billion - which could lead to budget cuts and a delay in Duke's long-planned Central Campus.

Elon University will admit more students for next fall to offset an expected decline in the number of students who accept the admissions offer. Susan Klopman, Elon's vice president for admissions and financial planning, said parents have watched their children's college savings plans plummet by as much as half.

"I've never seen families so completely thrown off base," she said.

Because students these days typically apply to eight to 10 schools, it is more difficult for colleges to predict the size of the incoming freshman class.

"We don't need to panic," Klopman said. "We need to be very cautious and aware of the uncertainty our families are feeling."

A decline in students could be a substantial blow, especially at small colleges. A survey of 371 private college presidents released this month showed that nearly half were expecting enrollment to slide 1 percent to 10 percent in the spring semester - a bigger decline than normal. About half of the leaders had frozen hiring, slowed construction and restricted travel budgets. Eleven percent said they had laid off faculty, or plan to, according to the survey by the National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities.

Colleges will find it difficult to slash spending on financial aid. Hope Williams, president of N.C. Independent Colleges and Universities, said schools will have to adapt as students' financial circumstances change.

"What we want to try to do is assure families who may be affected by this economic downturn that we will work with them in every way possible to make sure their children can stay in school," she said. "The best thing long term is to be able to keep them in school."

The worsening economic climate brings added challenges for campuses that were already in financial difficulty.

Doubly down

Enrollment at St. Andrews Presbyterian College in Laurinburg was down this fall by 125, to 625 students, following the school's accreditation problems. Last year the college filed a federal lawsuit against a regional accrediting organization, the Southern Association of Colleges and Schools.

The association, which passes judgment on the quality and strength of all colleges in the region, had moved to drop St. Andrews' accreditation because of concerns about financial stability.

A loss of accreditation spells doom for a college because its students are no longer eligible for federal financial aid.

St. Andrews is cutting its budget and laying off employees, but is also trying two new tactics to draw more students. The school plans to launch courses online next month. The college also has signed a contract with a company that recruits international students to U.S. campuses.

The school now has about $20 million in debt, the college's president, Paul Baldasare, said in a recent interview. But as the lawsuit makes its way through the courts, Baldasare said, St. Andrews isn't standing still.

"I think we've got the staying power to see it through," he said.

Louisburg College, a two-year private college in Franklin County, has its own problems with accreditation. This month, the accrediting association continued Louisburg's probation period for one year. The college has made substantial changes since it was placed on warning last year. It slashed its operating budget by $1.6 million by cutting 20 jobs and reducing its tuition discount rate.

The college has paid down its debt from $7 million to about $5.5 million, said Rodney Foth, interim president. The accrediting group liked the changes, Foth said, but wants to see a longer trend of financial stability.

Still, enrollment was down this fall, to 586 from 724 students last year. That meant the college employed fewer part-time faculty and offered 50 fewer course sections.

The college has made other money-saving decisions, such as patching an auditorium roof instead of replacing it. Foth, whose office is moving to make way for the incoming president next month, may stack his books on the floor rather than order new bookshelves.

He expects the probation to be lifted in a year