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Why, when the skies are gray and the December chill conjures visions of anything but parched lake beds and sun-baked clay, would anyone want to talk about ... water shortages?

After all, consumption is down. The city’s reservoirs are nearly full. Greensboro Water Resources Manager Allan Williams was feeling good this week about prospects for the spring. What? Us worry?

But the truth is, we are only a few dry months from being in trouble again next summer. Better now to consider the challenges, than when the next crisis strikes.

Fortunately, the Randleman Reservoir is nearing completion as a regional water source. Construction has begun on the final major piece of the project, a $40 million water treatment plant that should be finished by August 2010. The lake will provide 48 million gallons of drinking water a day, more than 25 million for Greensboro.

Meanwhile, as growth strains the state’s ability to cope with droughts, a new joint study by researchers at Duke University and UNC-Chapel Hill calls, rightly, for new approaches to managing the state’s water. It suggests statewide goals for conservation and planning models that would anticipate where shortages are likeliest to occur.

Two other recommendations make equally good sense but could encounter resistance in Raleigh. One would discourage local governments from setting water rates so low that they would be unable to properly maintain their water systems. The other would require industry and municipalities that use more than 100,000 gallons of water per day to seek permits from the state.

You’d think Greensboro’s Williams would oppose such meddling in local affairs. He doesn’t. “If we expect the state to lay out plans for water supply over the next decades,” he said, “we’re going to need a permitting system for big users.” Permitting would provide crucial data on water use and help the state anticipate problems before they happen.

Some other ideas do not appear in the researchers’ recommendation but ought to: long-range planning for infrastructure that could use recycled waste water, rather than drinking water, for purposes such as irrigation. And  tax credits or other incentives for the installation of more water-efficient plumbing, fixtures and appliances in homes and businesses.

Williams noted that no matter how kind the weather might be, Greensboro will keep growing. Its water capacity will peak at 60 million gallons a day, he said, even with Randleman Reservoir. Also, during the economic downturn, the city could be tempted to cut spending for water and sewer maintenance. That could prove even costlier in the long run.

As for the state study, the General Assembly, which commissioned it, is likely to take up its recommendations as early as January. Lawmakers should act urgently.

Behind every gray cloud, a sunny day lurks.