Wake Forest is going to have a postseason home, and N.C. State's chances are promising, the ACC's director of football operations said Sunday.
Michael Kelly said the future of the Wolfpack (6-6) depends on the availability of spots outside the ACC contractual structure. At least one of the two teams will go to an ACC-affiliated game; the other would need to land a spot that another league will fail to fill in its contracts. The best bet for that would be in the Texas Bowl in Houston or the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, La.
There was no definitive progress on those fronts Sunday, but discussions are expected to resume this week.
It is likely that enough spots will be available to accommodate a team with the Wolfpack's resume. State won its final four games to close at 6-6 overall and 4-4 in the ACC.
Four to six at-large bowl spots are likely to become available, and only three teams that will require at-large positions appear certain to qualify ahead of the Pack.
At 7-5, Wake is going somewhere, Kelly said. It's unclear whether the Deacs will be in an ACC-aligned game or elsewhere. The same is technically true of Maryland and Miami, both of which are also 7-5.
Clemson's record is also 7-5, but two of the Tigers' wins have come over FCS opponents. An NCAA rule says the Tigers can count one and only one of those two victories toward the minimum of six wins required for postseason participation. For the purposes of that provision, Clemson is a six-win team.
Another rule comes into play in the Tigers' circumstance. That regulation seeks to protect teams with seven or more wins from being usurped by six-win clubs when bowls with unexpectedly vacant spots pursue competitors. Kelly said he didn't know whether Clemson's record is 7-5 or 6-5 in the eyes of that law. The NCAA manual does not specifically address the topic.
Whether the ACC can make a deal with the Texas, Independence of any other bowl depends on the number of vacated spots and the number of candidates with seven or more victories in the pool.
Here's a breakdown of the situation. It appears that four to six positions will be free.
l The Pac 10 will not be able to fill its Poinsettia Bowl slot.
The Big Ten will be unable to offer a team to the Motor City Bowl if Ohio State is invited to a BCS bowl.
l The Big 12 will not be able to fill its spots in the Independence or Texas games.
l The Pac 10's Hawaii spot will come open if Arizona defeats Arizona State this week.
l The Sun Belt Conference has a deal with the Independence if the Big 12 or SEC can't fulfill obligations, but yet another NCAA rule suggests the deal will only become valid if Arkansas State (6-5) defeats conference-leading Troy (7-4) this week and secures a winning record.
"There shall be no contingency agreements with other sponsoring bowl organizations intended to enable an institution with a record of six wins and six losses to become eligible for those contests," the book says.
That may explain another reason for the delay in the resolution of the ACC's bowl picture.
And now to the candidates:
l Western Michigan (9-3) or Central Michigan (8-4) will secure a bid affiliated with the Mid-American Conference. The other will be placed into the at-large pool and will be going somewhere.
l The Western Athletic Conference has three teams that stand at 7-5: Louisiana Tech, Fresno State and Nevada. Two will be accommodated by WAC tie-ins; the third will be in the at-large pool.
l There aren't many viable 6-6 teams. N.C. State and Notre Dame are two, and either Louisville or Rutgers will be in the at-large mix at 6-6 if the Cardinals defeat the Scarlet Knights this week.
All in all, the numbers look good for the Pack.
Contact Rob Daniels at 373-7028 or rob.daniels@news-record.com
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