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Faltering economy reshapes governor’s race

Sunday, November 2, 2008
(Updated 9:34 am)

RALEIGH - It wasn't long after the May primary that Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory found a mantra for his run at the governor's mansion.

"My top priority as governor will be jobs, jobs, jobs," the Republican says in an ad he released this August.

Topics that dominated in the GOP primary - illegal immigration, road construction, inefficiency and corruption in state government - still have their place in his campaign against Democratic Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue. But it's the ailing economy, along with job creation, that has dominated McCrory's campaign rhetoric since before public school students went back to class this year.

Political strategists credit that focus for putting McCrory in a position to do something that the last four Charlotte mayors to try failed to do and that no Republican has managed in 16 years: win a race for governor.

"McCrory has benefited tremendously from his positioning on the issues," said Brad Crone, a Raleigh-based political strategist who works mainly for Democratic candidates. "Even before the financial meltdown, (polls showed) the number one issue was jobs and the economy."

The same financial crisis that forced the federal government to bail out some of the country's largest financial institutions and partially nationalize some banks has hit home for Tar Heels. The state's unemployment rate climbed to 7 percent in September, credit for home loans has become scarce, foreclosures are on the rise, and even some of the state's most stalwart companies, such as Wachovia, have been forced to merge with competitors.

It's not that Perdue was not talking about jobs. But she was also talking about an ambitious health care program to cover uninsured children, stem cell research, extending free community college tuition to in-state students and a bevy of other topics.

"Jobs has always been part of (Perdue's) message. I don't think that's changed," said Robin Britt, a former congressman who introduced Perdue at a recent campaign stop at the Greensboro Barack Obama presidential campaign office.

What has changed is the order in which she speaks about the economy. Instead of saying how shifting to renewable energy might also create jobs or how providing health care for more people will make it easier for businesses to expand, jobs and finances are message one these days.

"There is no topic in anyone's mind, other than something that's derived from financial issues, the economy," Perdue said at that Greensboro campaign stop. "In the early 1990s, President (Bill) Clinton said it and reminded us of it recently: 'It's the economy, stupid.' It's the economy. That's all it is. It was that way in the '90s and that way today for us."

Most polls, including one released last week by the Associated Press and GfK, show McCrory and Perdue virtually tied heading into the final days of the campaign. Libertarian Mike Munger, a Duke University political science professor, has garnered only single-digit support in any poll.

Traditionally, Democratic candidates for governor have out-performed others in their party running statewide, said Jack Fleer, a professor emeritus of political science at Wake Forest University. In 2000 and 2004, for example, Gov. Mike Easley cruised to election even as President Bush took home North Carolina's electoral votes.

But as Perdue has traded polling leads with McCrory, Obama has been seen as having a chance to win North Carolina - something no Democratic presidential nominee has done since 1976. Also, several polls show Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan tied or slightly ahead of Republican U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole.

The governor's race is also bucking a trend indicated by a recent Elon University Poll that showed North Carolina residents are more likely to trust Democrats to handle the economy than Republicans. That generic preference has not bolstered Perdue.

Fleer said several factors could have contributed to this reversal of the usual fortunes, including recent Democratic scandals in Raleigh and the fact that McCrory is better funded and more polished than recent GOP contenders. But he also points to McCrory's themes on the economy playing well as the economy got worse.

"He's had a much more focused agenda in that regard," Fleer said.

If the governor's race were a game of roulette, Perdue would have scattered her chips on a bunch of numbers, hoping to win no matter what slot on the wheel the little ball bounced into. But McCrory placed his bets on only a few issues, and the economy hit big.

"He (McCrory) has been talking about jobs and the economy since the beginning of the race," said Richard Hudson, McCrory's campaign manager. "We were fortunate that this issue has broken in our favor."

As the campaign enters its final days, both candidates are re-emphasizing their job-creating credentials.

Perdue points to her experience helping to keep the state's military bases and structuring state resources to take advantage of their presence.

McCrory plays up his work in economic development as a mayor and his efforts toward fostering a new light rail line.

And both candidates are watching how the sour economy is affecting the state budget. Gov. Mike Easley has ordered most state agencies to hold back at least 2 percent of their budget and may order additional cuts if tax collections slow any further.

Perdue praised Easley's action, saying it would make the next governor's task easier, if not easy. If she wins, Perdue said she will begin assembling a team to review the state's budget and look for cuts. She would not advocate any tax increases.

"You don't talk about tax increases when families are worried about keeping their homes and sending their kids to school," Perdue said.

She also acknowledged that some of her ambitions for the next administration, such as extending health care and education funding, are going to have to wait.

"We will have to make tough choices about what we want to invest in with limited funds," she said.

McCrory said that Easley's cuts may be too little of a head start for the next governor and said he would have to assemble "a crisis team" to manage the state's economy.

"The past projects are going to have to be thrown out the window," McCrory said. "We'll go line by line through the budget to see what we can reduce."

Like Perdue, he said tax increases would hurt efforts to revive the economy.

Unlike Perdue, McCrory said he may ask universities and community colleges for cuts, or at least reallocations of money that shift resources from more esoteric subjects to programs that give students job skills. For example, he said a shortage of nurses in the state and across the nation argued for putting more money into nursing programs at community colleges.

"We need to prioritize programs as it relates to the labor market," McCrory said.

 

Contact Mark Binker at(919) 832-5549 or mark.binker@news-record.com

 

Accompanying Photos

The Associated Press (Associated Press)

Photo Caption: Gubernatorial candidates Pat McCrory (from left), Michael C. Munger, and Bev Perdue during a debate Oct. 15.

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