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GREENSBORO - Sen. Joe Biden's visit to Greensboro on Monday - and the recent trend of Tar Heel stopovers by the presidential campaigns - mark two big shifts in the state's presidential politics.

North Carolina's population and demographics have changed enough to make it a possibility for a Democratic presidential candidate to run competitively here. Further, recent polls show that the state could go for a Democrat for the first time in a presidential election in more than 30 years.

"It's probably the first time in contemporary times as a battleground like this," said Hunter Bacot, director of the Elon University Poll.

Candidates certainly see what's at stake in North Carolina, which has been solidly in the Republican column for decades.

By campaigning hard here, the Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama and his running mate, Biden, are forcing Republican nominee Sen. John McCain and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, to play defense with their visits.

North Carolina is no small prize in the overall electoral math. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the presidency, and the state has 15 of them.

For the Democrats, winning North Carolina could offset a loss in a bigger state such as Ohio or Florida, or add to its overall mandate.

For the Republicans, a win would let them hold a state they've reliably had over the years and let them fight much harder for the bigger states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania.

"This is a must-win state for McCain to even remain competitive, and for him to have a shot, he's got to win North Carolina," Bacot said. "If Obama wins N.C. - though he's not going to need it - it will push him toward landslide status."

On Monday, it was Biden's turn at the microphone. He was last here about a month ago with Obama.

Kay Hagan, the Democratic candidate running against Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole, introduced Biden to an enthusiastic, yet chilly, crowd at the lawn tucked between the YWCA and Davie Street on Monday afternoon.

"I'm just hanging onto her skirt tails to victory," he said.

His speech hit on familiar themes, including the economy, the possibility of another Republican in the White House and what he labeled trade inequities with China.

"I think it's time for all the right reasons," Russ Moxley, 64, of Greensboro said of the possibility that the state could tilt away from Republicans. "I think Obama and Hagan both have a good chance."

A change in the state's demographics - North Carolina recently became the tenth- largest state and is one of the top states for relocations, according to the Mayflower Transit Customer Relocation Study - and the sudden economic downturn late in the campaign also helped erode the Republican lockdown here, said Ferrel Guillory, an adjunct faculty member in the Department of Public Policy at UNC-Chapel Hill.

"The anxiety over the economy has risen and that made more people receptive to change in the administration and the change in the party," Guillory said.

"This election suggests that the state is in transition politically as well as economically," he said. "It's going to remain a competitive two-party state; it's just that the presidential races might be more competitive."

Contact Gerald Witt at 373-7008 or gerald.witt@news-record.com