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N.C. Senate flip? GOP hopes are on the rise

John Davis has been breaking down state legislative races for NC FREE, a nonprofit that ranks politicians based on how “business-friendly” they are, for more than 20 years. And for most of that time, his message for Republicans in the N.C. Senate race has been gloomy.

Until this year, he said.

“Something very unique is going on this year with the passion of the American public in terms of wanting to make changes,” Davis said. “If an incumbent gives voters a reason to vote them out, the voters are going to jump all over that.”

Democrats have a 31-19 advantage in the Senate. For Republicans to take control, they would need to win seven seats held by Democrats.

Davis identifies eight seats he says could be vulnerable because of changing demographics or missteps by the incumbent. The closest one to Guilford County is in District 24, based in Alamance County, where first-term Democrat Tony Foriest faces Republican Rick Gunn. A Republican had held the seat for the decade before Foriest won in 2006.

Sen. Phil Berger, a Rockingham County Republican and his party’s leader in the Senate, said the eight races Davis has identified are ones where the party sees opportunity as well.

“We’ve been saying all along that the Democrats will be playing defense this time,” Berger said.

Berger’s opposite number on the Democratic side, Fayetteville Sen. Tony Rand, derides Davis’ analysis.

“You mean the analysis by the long arm of the Republican Party? He has no basis for any of that,” Rand said. “John’s simply wrong.”

By the way, in Guilford County, Davis rates the seat held by U.S. Senate candidate Kay Hagan as one Democrats are likely to keep. There, former City Council member Don Vaughan, a Democrat, is running against Republican Joe Wilson.

And the winner is ...

We at Scoop know who’s going to be our next president. The pumpkins told us.

According to well-placed sources — OK, the organizer Greta Lint — a pumpkin-tossing contest in Statesville last week revealed that the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin will beat out the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

And how do we know? The pumpkins with the painted faces of McCain and Palin flew the farthest.

By 4 yards.

Taken together, the pumpkins of McCain and Palin went 166 yards, and the pumpkins of Obama and Biden went 162 yards. And these pumpkins — all 3 pounds apiece — were tossed by a 10-foot Medieval siege machine known as a trebuchet.

And yes, Palin’s pumpkin had lipstick. You betcha.

But that’s not all. Kay Hagan’s pumpkin also soundly defeated Elizabeth Dole’s pumpkin by 6 yards, 85-79. And Pat McCrory’s pumpkin tied Bev Perdue’s pumpkin – 86 apiece.

So, McCrory and Perdue are headed for a runoff to see who will be our next governor, and Hagan will be our new senator.

OK, this contest was a stunt for the Statesville Pumpkin Festival next month.

And yes, the contest was a fun learning opportunity for local students. Seventh- and eighth-graders from the American Renaissance Charter School in Statesville painted the pumpkins, and students from Mitchell Community College built the trebuchet.

But in 2004, the first time the contest was carried out, it correctly predicted the winners of the presidential race — George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.

So … what does the second go-round really tell us?

“These pumpkins are organic, they’re part of the natural cycle of the earth, and the earth is telling us that we’d better quit slinging mud because we’re getting plenty of gourds,” Lint said.

District 2 brainstorm

About 30 residents joined Councilwoman Goldie Wells on Thursday night at the Revolution Mills Events Center to set her agenda for the second half of her term.

With some help from the Center for Creative Leadership, neighbors and leaders met in groups and identified what they liked about their district and what they want for the future.

Some things they loved: parks, schools and transit options. What they wanted:

economic development and jobs.

What’s standing in the way of those wishes: lack of investment, a negative perception of the area and inadequate enforcement of local laws.

Wells said economic development and crime are at the top of her concerns for her district. And she asked her constituents to help change the negative perceptions of northeast Greensboro.

“If we don’t toot our own horn, no one’s going toot our horn,” she said. “We’ve got to change the negative perception, and we will fix the crime.”

Don’t rescue me

Wall Street may want a bailout, but Kristin Ruth put out a news release Friday saying, with apologies to Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, thanks but no thanks.

Ruth and Sam Ervin IV are running for the same Court of Appeals seat, and both are Democrats. And because of a quirk in how the state’s nonpartisan public-financing system works, both became eligible for “rescue funds.” Oddly enough, they’re being rescued by an ad from their own party.

“This was an unintended consequence of North Carolina’s excellent system of public financing that led to an unnecessary expenditure of public money,” Ruth said in a statement.

Ervin said that he, too, plans to return any rescue funds offered up by the State Board of Elections.

“I learned of Ms. Ruth’s offer from the press earlier today (Friday) and intend to do the same,” Ervin said.

A clubbing over clubs

When state Sen. Kay Hagan married her husband, Chip, she also married his country club membership. Who knew it would crop up in her race to unseat U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole.

Until 1995, Greensboro Country Club had only white members, one the last vestiges of the segregated South to fall. The Hagans were members of the club at the time and this has led to calls for an apology from Republicans.

“I think she needs to answer whether or not she was aware of the situation — it would be shocking if she didn’t know,” John Randall, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told the Politco Web site. The committee has run ads attacking Hagan throughout the general election season. “She needs to explain why she didn’t push her husband to terminate his association with such an organization.”

Colleen Flanagan, a spokeswoman for Hagan, called the suggestion that Hagan favored the segregation policy “textbook Washington desperation.” In a statement, she added, “Chip supported broadening the membership to include African Americans and others. Though it took longer than it should have, Greensboro County Club fully desegregated in 1995 and remains so today.”

Mark Binker, Jeri Rowe and Amanda Lehmert contributed.