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One thing is sure: The number of foreclosure filings against Guilford County homeowners has increased since this time last year.

How bleak the news is depends on the source. According to information released Thursday by RealtyTrac, a company that tracks foreclosure properties nationally, there were 1,106 foreclosures in Guilford County’s two major cities during the third quarter.

That’s an increase of 192 percent compared with the third quarter of 2007 and a 10 percent increase from the second quarter of this year.

However, local economist Don Jud said that number seemed high, according to his data and research. He gathers his data from the N.C. Administrative Office of the Courts, which tracks foreclosure filings.

Jud said foreclosures in Guilford County increased 22.7 percent, from 292 filings in September 2007 to 358 filings in September 2008.

During the same time frame, RealtyTrac’s data shows foreclosures increased 154 percent, from 205 foreclosures in September 2007 to 520 foreclosures in September 2008.

The company gathers its data from default notices, trustee sale notices and information on properties that have been foreclosed on and repurchased by banks.

Either way, the rise in foreclosures continues a trend that dates back a decade but has accelerated recently, Jud said.

“Beginning about 10 years ago, the banks started making weak loans, weaker loans than they had ever made before,” he said. “What we’re seeing now is the weaker loans are being foreclosed on.”

That means more distressed sellers and a weaker housing market, Jud said.

And considering the state’s weakening economy, the damage may not be over.

“The rise of foreclosures over the past 10 years was not due to a bad economy. It was due to bad lending policies,” Jud said. “As the economy worsens, the number of foreclosures will rise more than they normally would have.”

Nationally, foreclosure filings were reported on 765,558 properties during the third quarter, up more than 3 percent from the second quarter and up 71 percent from the third quarter of 2007, according to RealtyTrac.

In North Carolina, 10,444 foreclosure filings were made in the third quarter, according to the company.

The news is bleak, and Jud said he doesn’t think the market has hit the bottom yet.

“I think the economy is in for some tough sledding through next year,” he said. “I don’t see any recovery really until the middle of next year.”

Contact Lanita Withers at 373-7071 or lanita.withers@news-record.com