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RALEIGH - Should every high school student strive to go to college?

That seemingly academic question lies at the heart of what may be the fiercest education policy dispute between gubernatorial candidates Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory.

"There's no data on that on either side," said Robert Serow, a professor of educational leadership at N.C. State. "It's really an ethical issue or a moral issue, or some would see it as a matter of common sense."

Whether a matter of ethics or common sense, it is a question that not only has immense implications for the state's $21.4 billion budget and your children, but also for the kind of economy the state will try to foster.

Perdue, a Democrat, says the jobs North Carolina hopes to attract in coming decades will require more education and that the state needs to look beyond its past glories in the textile, furniture and tobacco industries.

"In the 21st century, the choices we make about education are critical choices," Perdue said after a recent debate on education. "What is it we want to do? Do we want to continue to cut off kids from higher learning opportunity whose parents and grandparents can't write the check? Or do we want to open it up to all people?"

She has called for expansion of programs that help pay for college and has proposed offering free community college tuition to North Carolina students.

McCrory, a Republican, argues that college is an admirable goal, but not the only one. He calls Perdue's stance "elitist" and said the state can't afford her programs. Rather, he says, the state needs to re-emphasize technical trades in high schools and community colleges.

And McCrory argues that the state's educational policy should be linked to the needs of employers.

"As I visit industries and businesses throughout North Carolina, I see we cannot find qualified employees in many of our jobs, especially technical jobs, mechanical jobs, electrical jobs, welding jobs, health care workers. The list goes on and on. We have a disconnect," he said during the debate.

Libertarian Mike Munger, a Duke University political science professor, has mustered only single-digit poll numbers and by his own admission is unlikely to win the governor's race this fall. Neither Perdue nor McCrory has paid much attention to his proposals, focusing their campaign rhetoric on each other.

North Carolina spends more than half of its tax revenue on education programs ranging from prekindergarten through the university system. The state's educational leadership is divided among a jumble of public figures, including an independently elected state superintendent of public instruction, a state school board and legislative leaders.

Locally elected school boards, an increasingly vocal teachers group and any number of independent policy groups push and pull on the debate.

But it is the governor who is responsible for administering the budget and who has access to a bully pulpit like no other. Gov. Mike Easley and his predecessor, Jim Hunt, both Democrats, used that standing to great effect, pushing for the creation of signature prekindergarten and high school programs, as well as salary increases for teachers.

McCrory's stance - that the state needs to do more to promote technical education - is born out of frequent complaints aired by business leaders and industrial trainers who see a shortage of people with the skills needed to operate and repair big machines.

"We have put a stigma on manual labor and skilled labor," said Joel Leonard, who used to work with the MPACT training center in Greensboro. He now produces a job skills Web site and gives speeches that encourage businesses and individuals to invest more in the skills needed to maintain heavy equipment.

"Nobody wants to talk about their kids being plumbers or electricians. Everyone thinks of them as Bubbas and Skeeters ... and that's being kind."

Although Leonard said he doesn't endorse either candidate, he says McCrory has been aggressive in talking about this issue.

As for McCrory's claim that community colleges are drifting from their technical roots, there is evidence to back that up. In a letter he is writing to legislators, Scott Ralls, president of the N.C. Community College System, says there's still a healthy demand for workers.

"However, since 2002, 98 technical programs have been eliminated in North Carolina's 58 community colleges, primarily due to the dual challenges of increasing program costs and declining enrollments in heavily male-dominated fields," Ralls wrote.

A spokeswoman said the community college system's goal is "to re-establish and place a renewed emphasis on areas that include construction, transportation systems, engineering and industrial programs. We want to market these programs to attract and then graduate more students to meet growing industry needs."

On the flip side, economists say there is consistent data that show students who earn four-year college degrees will earn significantly more money - $1 million is the standard estimate cited by economists - over their lifetime than those who complete just high school or have only some training from a community college.

"The occupational groups that require some college or graduate or professional training are the ones that pay the most and will be the most in demand," said UNCG economist Andrew Brod. Labor market forecasts, he said, predict a shortage of workers who have skills and credentials gained at four-year colleges.

Brod said there needed to be a balance, noting that the state still had plenty of manufacturing jobs and that it made sense to train workers for those jobs.

"We're not so highly educated in this state that we couldn't use a few more manufacturing jobs," Brod said.

Both candidates seem to be drawing on a body of thought that extends beyond North Carolina's borders.

For example, Charles Murray, a scholar with the conservative American Enterprise Institute who came to notoriety as co-author of "The Bell Curve," argues in a recent paper and book that too many teenagers are going to college. He writes that the kind of education that a four-year university provides is "increasingly obsolete."

Some of Murray's arguments can be heard in McCrory's rhetoric, including the call for a greater focus on vocational skills and the concern that a stigma is attached to fields where no college degree is required.

But other researchers argue that North Carolina's and the nation's continued economic success depends on the ability to increase the number of students who head to college. In a recent report, authors writing for the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems argued that the United States is slipping behind other countries in educational attainment and would therefore suffer in attracting new businesses.

Perdue's proposals to offer free two-year tuition to full-time community college students and expand state scholarship assistance for low-income families are similar to responses developed in other states.

Proposals in Indiana and Massachusetts, for example, would offer free community college tuition.

Many of those interviewed said the best answer is to undertake both approaches emphasized by the candidates. But it is likely that the next governor will find the state budget already stretched by an economic downturn and few extra tax dollars to spend. They'll have to choose which programs they want to see created or expanded and which educational philosophy will get less investment.

Voters, it seems, will have a hand in making that choice when they pick the next governor.

Contact Mark Binker at (919) 832-5549 or mark.binker@news-record.com