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Charlie Cook is a political analyst and reporter whom other political analysts and reporters turn out to see. The publisher of the Cook Political Report and analyst for the National Journal Group spoke with local political reporters at Elon University on Monday.

Besides breaking down the presidential race, Cook was asked to talk about the U.S. Senate campaign between Democrat Kay Hagan, a Greensboro state senator, and incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole.

On the state of U.S. Senate campaigns across the county and the Dole-Hagan race particularly:

"In the Senate, it's just purely a function of raw numbers. The Republicans have 23 seats up this time, Democrats only have 12. Republicans have six open seats, Democrats have none. (It's) generally harder to defend open seats in those cases than when you have an incumbent there. It's just a matter of numbers, and Republicans have sort of drawn a bad hand.

"In the Elizabeth Dole race, first of all: a year ago, we certainly never thought we'd be talking about it. But when your party is going through a really tough year, the economy is bad, your president has got a low approval rating, this sort of normal benefit of being a Republican isn't as great, even in the South, as it usually is, so you've got an unusual situation of a Republican incumbent senator in difficulty. ... It's obviously a very, very competitive race."

On why Dole is in a close race rather than far ahead in the polls:

"Part of it is that when you get elected to the Senate, you're a lot younger, a lot more aggressive and proactive, and you hit the ground running and you work your tail off for six years and then you get re-elected. And you work pretty hard for the next six, and then you get re-elected and then you can kind of ease back on the throttle a little bit. ... When you get elected and you're not that young and you're a Republican in the South, maybe you're not quite as visible as you've needed to have been, and maybe you haven't been quite as aggressive as you've needed to have been, and in a bad year you can get yourself into a race."

On Kay Hagan and what she has done to win the race, or not:

"It's not about her. It's a referendum up or down on Elizabeth Dole and to a lesser extent, Republicans, and that Kay Hagan is a vessel. Now, it doesn't mean that they can't disqualify her, and find stuff and dig it up and beat the (heck) out of her and make her unacceptable - now that's certainly an option. It's certainly something the Dole campaign may try to do and may successfully, but at least at this point, I don't think it's about Kay Hagan."

Contact Mark Binker at (919) 832-5549 or mark.binker@news-record.com