news-record.com

RALEIGH (AP) --_ A change in the forecast track for Tropical Storm Fay suggests what's left of the storm later this week won't dump desperately needed rainfall on North Carolina as initially expected.

"It appears now that the chances are less that central North Carolina will get beneficial rains form the system," Brandon Vincent, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Raleigh, said in a telephone interview Monday night. "The mountains still have a chance, but it will be later in the weekend."

The latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center shows Fay heading northeast through Florida toward its northeast border with Georgia.

Vincent said a high-pressure system settling in over the eastern United States will block Fay from moving much farther north. He said Fay could possibly stall over Georgia, and that Fay would likely steer away from central North Carolina. The storm had been expected to reach the mountains by Saturday.

Earlier Monday, hopes were high that Fay would be the tropical system hoped for in the dry Carolinas. Until the forecast change in direction, projections called for 10 inches or more in the Charleston to Savannah area, and 2 to 3 inches over the western Carolinas.

"These tropical systems do play a part in helping us get our normal yearly rainfall," Vincent said. "That's why we were exceptionally dry last year."

"Now it's looking like the chances are decreasing that we will get help from this system as far as rainfall is concerned."

Vincent didn't rule out the prospects that the state could get some rain from the remnants of Fay, even if it spins in one spot for a few days.

"The whole time it's over land, it will be weakening," he said. "Unless there's something to tear it apart, the system can actually survive for quite a while. It's pretty hard to kill these tropical systems unless you have an upper level feature tearing it apart."

And that could mean western North Carolina will still get significant rainfall if there's weakening in the high-pressure system.

"But you also don't want 3 to 4 inches falling in six hours," Vincent said. "It can be a double-edged sword. You want rain but you don't want it all at once."

On Aug. 23, 1995, Tropical Storm Jerry came ashore in Florida and its remnants dropped 20 inches of rain on some portions of western South Carolina and up to 10 inches in North Carolina, causing flooding along creeks and rivers, said National Weather Service meteorologist Doug Outlaw in Greer, S.C.

Hurricane Ivan and Tropical Storm Frances caused an estimated $44 million in damages in 2004 due in part to flooding rains in western North Carolina.

Weather service figures show the rainfall deficit for the year so far is 10.69 inches in Asheville, while Charlotte's deficit is 5.83 inches.

North Carolina officials said 18 southwestern counties are in exceptional drought, the worst category on the federal drought monitoring scale.