After I returned from Russia a few weeks ago, a friend asked about my itinerary. Our tour, I replied, took us from Moscow to St. Petersburg "but not down south to the Black Sea and Georgia."
When I mentioned "Georgia," a puzzled look crossed the person's face. "Not Atlanta," I half-jokingly explained, "but the other Georgia."
Until war broke out last week between Georgia and Russia, most Americans couldn't find "the other Georgia" on the map. Geography has never been Americans' strong suit.
Which is not to say that two weeks in Russia make me an expert on Russia or Georgia. Yet Russia's military mischief reconfirms observations made in previous columns written after I returned from Russia. Namely:
l That Vladimir Putin, the former Russian president who had himself named prime minister, a nominally lesser role, is still the top gun. Dmitry Medvedev, his hand-picked successor, is window-dressing.
l That Putin had restored Russia's self-confidence, and the war in Georgia will raise nationalism to a higher pitch. Russia had largely faded from public consciousness after the collapse of communism, and its feelings got hurt.
Then came Putin, the iron-fisted autocrat and former KGB agent. Polls show that most Russians are Putin fans because he has delivered economic stability and put Russia back on the map. "He has restored our pride,'' a Russian told me while I was in Moscow.
I was reminded of his remark the other day when Russian tanks rolled into Georgia. The West was appalled but most Russians applauded. They were told that Georgia provoked the action. A Russian poll taken this week found that 71 percent approved of Russia's goals while only 2 percent sided with Georgia.
Putin's hero is said to be Peter the Great and, like Peter, Putin thinks in terms of spheres of influence. He recoils at the prospect of neighboring Georgia and Ukraine applying for NATO membership, and his military incursion in Georgia was partly designed to teach that lesson.
Earlier this week, the presidents of Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia flew to Tbilisi to show solidarity with Georgia. Russia's former satellite states, especially Ukraine, have reason to be jittery.
While I was in Russia, the English-language St. Petersburg Times reported that the Kremlin might dispatch bombers to air bases in Cuba if the United States builds its missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic, former satellite states that are now NATO members. The Kremlin has since denied the rumor, but it produced nervous memories of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.
Putin is feeling crowded by encroaching "NATOism" and is playing psychological games. He's reminding Washington that he can deploy bombers into our own backyard if we intrude in his.
Hindsight suggests that Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, who's been called "America's darling," may have over-reached when he sent troops into the separatist province of South Ossetia claimed by Georgia. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice purportedly told him last July not to stoke the long-simmering conflict for fear it would provoke a Russian military response. Others say Rice sent mixed signals.
In any event, the Bush administration was slow to react. It should have sent Rice to the region immediately to underscore the gravity of U.S. concern. Solutions to the conflict are difficult. The West, especially Europe, is dependent on Russia for oil and natural gas, and the Caucasus region is the pipeline. And even if Washington wanted to send troops to Georgia, no troops are available. They're fighting wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The best hope is for a firm cease-fire and neutral international peacekeepers in the region.
Meanwhile, the West has learned a dangerous lesson: The Russian bear has awakened and is on the prowl. Beware!
Rosemary Roberts writes a Friday column. E-mail: rmroberts@triad.rr.com.
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