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The campaign that wasn't supposed to be may have just changed the electoral calculus throughout North Carolina.

For all of 2007 and even the first two months of 2008, political observers were convinced North Carolina would play virtually no role in the presidential primaries.

So much for the pundits.

When early primary contests failed to produce a winner, Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton criss-crossed the state. Obama won handily here and pundits now credit Tar Heels with helping him close in on his party's nomination.

The excitement surrounding that campaign attracted thousands of new voters, expanding Democrats' registration edge over Republicans. And Obama's campaign staff have insisted that he would battle presumptive Republican nominee John McCain for North Carolina in the fall.

"At first I thought that was a little bit bizarre. But they keep saying it," said Carter Wrenn, a long-time Republican strategist.

Wrenn's skepticism is rooted in history. Jimmy Carter's 1976 victory here was the last time a Democrat carried the state against a Republican in the presidential contest. Former president Bill Clinton gave it a go in 1992 but fell short and did not repeat his effort in 1996.

But with the conventional wisdom having been openly and thoroughly flouted once this year, Wrenn and other observers are loathe to declare the state out of reach for Obama.

"I don't know if there's going to be anything conventional about this election," said Brad Crone , a Democratic strategist who is working for state legislative candidates this year.

So, both Wrenn and Crone, during interviews in late May, say that it shouldn't be a surprise if Obama does try to win North Carolina. What exactly that would mean for the state is unclear.

Over the past decade, North Carolina political quirks have taken center stage. Although President Bush won here in 2000 and 2004, Democrat Mike Easley handily won races for governor during those two elections. And although both of the state's U.S. senators are Republicans, seven of the 13 U.S. House members from the state are Democrats.

And analysts on both sides of the political equation can find reason to worry about the 2008 elections.

Republicans look warily at three special Congressional elections staged in the U.S. this year that Democrats won in districts that should have been GOP strongholds. In North Carolina, state Sen. Kay Hagan, a Democrat, is polling well against Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole in the U.S. Senate contest.

"It doesn't have anything to do with Kay Hagan," Wrenn said, pointing out that the senator is still working on gaining name recognition around the state. "It has to do with those trends that favor Democrats. It's party identification that's boosting her."

Meanwhile, Crone points to Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, the Republican candidate for governor, polling relatively even with Democrat Bev Perdue, the current lieutenant governor.

"There should be a tsunami building for the Democrats based on the war in Iraq, the economy, gas prices," Crone said. If that conventional wisdom held, he said, most state-level Democrats should find themselves well ahead of the game. "But you're seeing competitive races up and down the ballot."

One explanation, he said, could be that voters are frustrated with all incumbents. While the Republican president has historically low job-approval ratings, Democrats control Congress and Raleigh. Recent stories out of the state capital have involved failures, misspending and shortfalls in government programs such as the mental health system and state road-building agency.

"Voters are mad, and they're upset, and they're trying to figure out who to hold accountable," Crone said.

All of this has political observers of all stripes trying to figure which may be the most intriguing races of the fall. Contests for president, governor and U.S. Senate aside, there is not a shortage of possibilities.

Republican Rep. Robin Hayes narrowly lost to schoolteacher Larry Kissel , a Democrat, in 2006. Kissel is once again taking on Hayes and this time has big-time backing from the National Democratic party.

Even Howard Coble , a 12-term incumbent Republican from Greensboro who hasn't had a close election in more than a decade, said he worries voter frustration with incumbents could affect his race.

Wrenn said he will be watching the race for lieutenant governor, which features two state senators. Republican Robert Pittenger faces Democrat Walter Dalton .

"Pittenger is one of those rare Republican candidates down the ballot who will have the funds to run a real campaign," Wrenn said.

Crone pointed to the state treasurer and state auditors contests as ones that could be particularly competitive.

Those picks aside, both men suggested that turnout, story lines and other factors linked to the presidential contest will echo down the ballot.

"The story is the national stuff," Wrenn said. "The presidential election is going to dominate everything."

Contact Mark Binker at (919) 832-5549 or mark.binker@news-record.com