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Young people register, but will they vote?

Sunday, July 27, 2008
(Updated 3:00 am)

RALEIGH — Voter registration in Guilford County grew by 4 percent in the first six months of this year, with Democrats gaining the lion’s share of new voters and bolstering their lead over registered Republicans.

The ranks of unaffiliated voters grew as well. Meanwhile, 106 fewer people were registered as Republicans on July 1 than was the case on Jan. 1.

But that doesn’t trouble Guilford County Republican Party Chairman Bill Wright, who gives credit for the burst in registration numbers to the spring primary.

The Republican presidential nomination race was over by the time early voting began, Wright pointed out. But Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were still fighting it out during and after the May 6 primary.

“That primary, and particularly Obama, has generated a lot of interest,” Wright said. “But there’s a long time between now and November and a lot of things are coming out. ... The sparkle off his star is going to dim between now and November.”

Democrats, he said, may find that all the new voters they’ve registered might not show up to the polls.

That’s because people 30 and younger made up slightly more than half of all of those who registered to vote in Guilford County during 2008. And of the county’s 163 voting precincts, those on the campuses of UNCG and A&T saw the largest boosts in their registration totals.

Young voters have a history of registering to vote and then staying home. With so many of the new Democratic registrations coming from young voters, Wright said Republicans won’t find themselves at such a disadvantage.

But others caution this year could be different.

“I am a firm believer that this year will buck the trend,” said Michael Cobb, a professor of political science at N.C. State.

Cobb said that in past years young voters have not had big preferences in terms of parties or presidential candidates. This year, he said, newly registered voters younger than 30 are more likely to register as Democrats and much more likely to prefer Obama over McCain.

“They’ve been a fickle group because people haven’t paid attention to them,” Cobb said. “This year people, particularly Democrats, are paying attention.”

He said that new online tools, such as applications built in the popular Facebook social networking environment, could also help turn out new voters.

Certainly the state Democratic Party is putting emphasis on reaching new voters and making sure they turn out.

“We are active in nearly every corner of the state and our research shows that person-to-person contact is the most effective way to get people to the polls,” said Kerra Bolton, spokeswoman for the state Democratic Party.

Bolton said Democrats had invested in 12 regional field offices and organized more than 92 county-level meetings to create personal contact.

Meanwhile, Wright said Republicans were stepping up their own voter registration efforts in August and early September.

Contact Mark Binker at (919) 832-5549 or mark.binker@news-record.com

New voters

From Jan. 1 through July 1, 12,654 new voters registered in Guilford County. Although they are spread across the county and represent different races and ages, there were trends.

  • 47 percent were African American, compared to census figures that show African Americans make up 31 percent of the county’s population.
  • 58 percent registered as Democrats, 26 percent unaffiliated and 16 percent as Republicans.
  • Republicans lost ground in terms of overall registration, with 106 fewer people registered Republican on July 1 than on Jan. 1.
  • 55 percent were women.

—Guilford County Board of Elections data, News & Record analysis

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