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Gate City’s growth spurt is welcome

Saturday, July 12, 2008
(Updated 8:28 am)

GREENSBORO - The Gate City finally has put some pop back into its population.

After five years of anemic growth, it appears that Greensboro has begun to add people at what some see as a more healthy pace.

In figures released this week, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates that from July 1, 2006, to July 1, 2007 , the city grew by 2.4 percent .

Though that doesn't sound that impressive - and it's not when judged against cities such as Cary (7.3 percent) and Raleigh (4.2 percent) - Greensboro grew at less than 1 percent a year in the first half of the decade.

Now, it's the 38th fastest-growing city in the country among those of 100,000 population or more.

Also, it's growing faster than the surrounding towns, faster than Guilford County , faster than the state of North Carolina and faster than the nation as a whole.

"That's much better," Don Jud , professor emeritus at the Bryan School of Business and Economics at UNCG , said of the city's recent spurt. "It's a big turnaround for us."

Thanks to the recent increase, the Census Bureau estimates that Greensboro has become the nation's 74th largest city with a population of 247,183 . That total does not include about 10,000 people annexed into the city June 30.

Even so, it's an increase of 8.2 percent since 2000 . That compares with a jump of only 3.6 percent from 2000 to 2005 .

A report last year from Keith Debbage , a professor of urban development at UNCG , called that lack of growth "a cause for concern."

Efforts to reach Debbage for comment this week were unsuccessful.

Some experts contend that a low growth rate could lead to higher property taxes, a lower level of economic activity and a negative image.

The most recent Census figures mark significant jumps for several North Carolina cities: Charlotte entered the nation's top 20 , Raleigh climbed into the top 50 and Greensboro into the top 75 .

And High Point passed the 100,000 mark for the first time, with a population of 100,432 .

"It's great to be part of one of the growing cities of the Triad," said Tom Dayvault , president and CEO of the High Point Chamber of Commerce . "In reality, this just helps in recruiting jobs and new businesses because it puts us in a higher Census category."

Guilford's second-largest city grew by 16.5 percent since 2000, but experienced a growth rate of only 1.8 percent from 2006 to 2007.

"I think growth percentages all around the country have slowed down because of the economy," Dayvault said, "but it is certainly nothing to be concerned about."

Though the Census Bureau touts the latest figures as depicting a locale's growth from July 1, 2006, to July 1, 2007, the estimates, in fact, are made for Jan. 1 , 2007 .

That makes it difficult for observers to understand how a city's population has changed in the 18 months since then and what a combination of higher gas prices, a declining housing market and a credit crunch may have played on growth.

Some experts say they are aware of nothing in Greensboro's economy that would explain the city's improved population performance. Rather, they say the local economy was probably pulled along by improved conditions for the state as a whole.

Others downplay the importance of the increase.

"If we compare ourselves to places like Raleigh and Charlotte, then the little bit of an uptick doesn't amount to much," said William T. Markham , professor of sociology at UNCG . "It's not like it's a dramatic change."

Contact Donald W. Patterson at 373-7027 or don. patterson@news-record.com.

Accompanying Photos

John Newsom (News & Record)

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