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RALEIGH — Tar Heel voters have been telling pollsters that immigration will be an issue they weigh in choosing their next U.S. senator. That suits incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole just fine, say campaign consultants and others who study elections.

The experts say that immigration will be a bigger issue than the war or the economy. Will it? Why? Join the discussion at the Debatables blog.


"Not only is it going to play in her favor, she knows it's going to present a problem for any Democratic challenger," said Hunter Bacot, a political science professor at Elon Unversity and director of the Elon University Poll.

Three Democrats have said they will run to take on Dole, and even the front-runners seem to be taking their time picking through the immigration issue.

Two Elon University polls conducted this fall showed that more than 70 percent of North Carolinians say immigration issues will influence their vote for Senate in 2008. That puts immigration in the same tier of first-line political issues as health care, the war in Iraq and job creation among the state's voters.

Bacot said that it is a particularly problematic issue for Democrats because voters here by and large favor law-and-order enforcement measures over those that would allow amnesty or guest worker programs. It's a position that is more conservative than the Democratic Party's national stance or that of its more liberal, activist wing here in North Carolina.

"They're courting the Hispanic vote nationally," Bacot said. "But in North Carolina you can't be seen as too soft on immigration."

Democratic front-runners Kay Hagan, a state senator from Greensboro, and Jim Neal, a Chapel Hill investment banker, are able to offer broad thoughts on immigration policies. However, both still appear to be formulating their thoughts on specific steps they would like to see the country take.

Hagan says that she favors "enforcing the current laws on the books as far as people coming across the border illegally."

Asked about granting amnesty to some migrants already here or creating a new guest worker program, Hagan said she was still studying the issue.

Neal said, "Without a doubt, we have an immigration system in this country that does not work." He said that any immigration solution would have to balance the need for law and order with practical concerns such as the needs of businesses such as farms.

"There's got to be some sort of temporary-worker program put in place, but we're not talking about amnesty," Neal said, saying that a comprehensive immigration bill is needed.

John Ross Hendrix, a Cary man who recently switched from the Republican to the Democratic Party, has also filed to run for Senate. On his Web site, he writes of immigration, "I don't think there is any way to give a winning answer to this question." Although he doesn't favor an amnesty program, he does favor making it easier for people to come here legally.

"Go home, get back in line," Hendrix said during an interview. "Then, come on back and sign the guestbook."

Recent public debates on immigration-related topics in North Carolina have produced swift and furious public response. For example, in 2005 a legislative effort to give the children of illegal immigrants in-state tuition at the state's colleges produced a backlash that forced sponsors to abandon the bill.

"North Carolina is a unique case in the sense that it has only recently seen the growth of a Latino community," said Marisol Jiménez McGee, advocacy director for El Pueblo, a group that works on behalf of the state's Latino community. Other states, such as New York and California, have long had large immigrant communities from a variety of ethnic groups, she said.

By contrast, the phrase "immigration debate" in North Carolina is more specifically focused on those from Hispanic backgrounds, even if they came to the state from Chicago rather than Chile.

"The majority of Latinos in North Carolina are not yet citizens. So in the analysis of a campaign talking about voters, well, this community is not home to a lot of voters yet," Jiménez McGee said.

That has allowed the immigration debate in North Carolina to focus largely on "enforcement" solutions among both Democrats and Republicans.

Enforcement has certainly been Dole's focus on the issue, something she has emphasized this fall in appearances with sheriffs across the state. She has promoted a program that allows local law enforcement to work with federal authorities to find and detain illegal immigrants.

Her renewed push may have something to do with poll results that showed Dole has work to do as well. More residents of the state were unsatisfied than pleased with Dole's performance on the immigration issue, according to the September Elon University Poll.

"I would take issue with the way in which the Elon Poll asked their questions," said Mark Stephens, a consultant to the Dole campaign.

He said that Dole's work on the immigration issue and her votes in Congress lined up with the views of voters in this state.

Dole voted with the majority of the U.S. Senate this summer to crush a comprehensive immigration reform bill, despite support from President Bush and major players from both parties pushing the effort.

"Most voters in the state would have agreed it was bad legislation, it was amnesty," Stephens said.

In addition, Dole has been a supporter of building a wall along the U.S.-Mexican border and has opposed amnesty for immigrants here illegally.

Although they are still formulating their own positions, Hagan and Neal were quick to criticize Dole's positions.

Asked about Dole's interest in the federal-local immigration enforcement cooperation, Hagan said, "It's about time that she found an issue to run on."

Neal criticized Dole's vote on the immigration bill.

"The president, to his credit, put forward an immigration bill that opened the debate," Neal said. "It didn't see the light of day and the reason it didn't see the light of day is because politicians in Washington, like Senator Dole, killed it so they could have an issue to run on in 2008. She's following the Republican playbook."

Although no one expects the immigration debate to be any less heated over the next year, some say the focus of the debate might change.

Jiménez McGee notes the children of immigrants who came to North Carolina in the early 1990s will be coming of voting age over the next few years.

"In 2008, I don't know," she said. "But in 2009 and 2010 and as we head into those future years, without a doubt things will be changing."

Contact Mark Binker at (919) 832-5549 or mbinker@news-record.com