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GREENSBORO — Jay Ovittore struggled to make himself heard over the ripping wind and the clacking of a rocking, wooden podium as he made his bid for Congress official Thursday.

Well, can he be beat? (Putting aside for the sake of discussion whether he should be beat.) Join the discussion at the Debatables blog.

That might be as apt an allegory as any for whoever runs in North Carolina's 6th Congressional District against Republican incumbent Howard Coble.

Gerrymandering, a history of lackluster campaigns by challengers and long service have combined to entrench Coble, making it hard for other candidates to get their messages heard. Republicans outnumber Democrats in the district 47 percent to 35 percent. Not since 1990 has a challenger won more than 30 percent of the vote against Coble. And the Republican enjoys a huge fundraising advantage, with $629,896 in the bank as of the last federal election filing.

Ovittore is one of at least two Democrats who say they will challenge Coble this year, and he is the best-known. A house painter by trade who has also worked as a drummer in rock bands, he has served as a president of the Guilford County Young Democrats.

After his official campaign announcement Thursday, Ovittore acknowledged that he was undertaking an uphill battle. But, he said, some factors may work in his favor.

"First and foremost, Congress' approval rating is 11 percent," Ovittore said, referencing a recent Zogby poll. "That tells me 89 percent of the voters are unhappy with what their congressmen are doing. I feel people want change, I feel they want a lot of change quickly."

Summerfield's Johnny Carter, who works as a general manager for a plumbing business, says he will run as a Democrat.

His Web site outlines positions that run from classically Democratic — he favors universal health care — to more conservative, such as his take on immigration and religion in public life.

When asked about his potential in a general election, Carter also acknowledged that beating the personable Coble will be hard.

"It's hard to break a bad habit, and Howard Coble is a bad habit," Carter said.

David Crawford, a Democrat who filed to run against City Council member Mike Barber but then dropped out, says on his MySpace page he plans to run as well.

Coble sounded cautious when asked about his re-election campaign Thursday.

"It's going to be a bad year generally for incumbents," Coble said. Voters, he said, are frustrated with a lack of progress on issues like immigration and with the United States' continuing presence in Iraq.

"And our core constituents have not forgiven Republicans for excessive spending during the years we were in the majority," Coble said.

Those factors combined could work against him, although Coble says he doesn't plan on "voluntarily retiring" in 2008.

And the likelihood of Coble being forced to pack up his D.C. offices is small, say election watchers such as Chalmers Brumbaugh, a political science professor at Elon University.

Not only does there have to be a strong challenger and the type of political environment that Coble noted — Brumbaugh said that the incumbent would have to commit a major misstep.

"He has to show some personal vulnerabilities," Brumbaugh said. "And he really hasn't made any serious gaffes....The structural wave worked against Republicans last time (in 2006) and that could happen again — I just don't see that as being enough."

Brumbaugh said Coble also enjoys a reputation as being a nice man with good constituent service.

"It's hard to get people to work and vote against that kind of individual," he said.

Ovittore himself pointed to Coble's reputation as a nice man.

"I'm a nice guy, too," he said, smiling.

Ovittore and Carter said they would target Coble's votes more than his personality. In particular, both men said they would focus on Coble's Iraq war votes.

Coble has been a critic of President Bush's war policy — saying he thought U.S. troops should be brought home — but has not voted for Democratic proposals to limit Iraq deployments.

"My opponent," Ovittore said, speaking about Coble, "has had, because of the district he's in, the ability to talk out of one side of his mouth and vote out of the other."

Contact Mark Binker at (919) 832-5549 or mbinker@news-record.com