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GREENSBORO — With Kay Hagan pursuing a run at the U.S. Senate, she will leave behind an open legislative seat. It's a rare opportunity for other politicians to move up or a newcomer to make the scene this late in a legislative decade.

Typically, there is more churn when the legislature redraws its districts after the census, which is conducted every 10 years.

Although there are no shortage of possible contenders with experience in state or local government, none are quite on the warpath yet.

State Senate District 27 covers central and northern Greensboro and represents about 130,000 voters. The district is one of four that contain parts of Guilford County. Roughly 50 percent of the voters are Democrats, 30 percent are Republicans, and the remainder are unaffiliated.

Although nothing ensures victory, particularly when dealing with an open seat in a presidential election year, that sort of voter breakdown makes it likely Democrats will hang on to the district. That would be good news for the party, which could see some of its 31-19 advantage in the Senate erode after 2008.

Hagan, a Democrat, had not held elective office before she ran in 1998, but she had been active in statewide political campaigns. Although her replacement could be a political novice, the bench in Guilford County is fairly deep, especially among Democrats.

Three House members, all Democrats, live in the Senate district: Reps. Maggie Jeffus, Pricey Harrison and Earl Jones.

Jones and Jeffus said they were comfortable in the House and had no plans to run for the other chamber.

Although not closing the door on a bid to switch chambers, Harrison said the House was probably a better fit for her.

"I'm very happy in the House and very happy with the leadership in the House and the opportunities to make some progress on issues I really care about," said Harrison, who was given the chairmanship of her own committee in just her second year.

Asked who else might run for the seat, Democrats pointed to two other well-known members of their party from Guilford County: Margaret Arbuckle and Don Vaughan.

Arbuckle is a former county commissioner who leads the Guilford Educational Alliance, which encourages private-sector involvement in public schools.

"I'm very complimented that people would be thinking of me," Arbuckle said, noting that Hagan had called her once she made a decision to run for the U.S. Senate. "I'm not ready to make any public statement about that."

Vaughan served on the City Council from 1991 through 2005. He lost a close election in 1996 for the Senate seat that Hagan won in 1998.
He is a lawyer, a small part of whose business has been lobbying the legislature.

"I'm pleased to have received a number of telephone calls and a lot of encouragement," Vaughan said Wednesday. "This is all something new with Kay (Hagan) just announcing. I'll certainly take a look at it," he said.

Other Democrats who live in that district include Guilford County Commissioners Melvin "Skip" Alston and Paul Gibson, Mayor Keith Holliday and City Councilwoman Florence Gatten. Neither Holliday nor Gatten are running for re-election this year.

Alston said he is weighing several options for 2008, including keeping his commissioner's seat but not ruling out a Senate run.

"I have some people talking to me about it, but I haven't made any commitments," he said.

Gibson gave the most definitive answer.

"I'm seriously considering it," Gibson said.

For Republicans, a known candidate may be harder to come by.

Rep. John Blust, who defeated Vaughan in 1996, was ousted by Hagan in 1998. He ran for and won a House seat in 2000.

Since then, Hagan's Senate district was redrawn and Blust no longer lives inside the borders. He said he has no plans to move to run.

Mark McDaniel, who ran against Hagan in 2002, said he won't run. The same redistricting that put Blust outside the district also cut out key GOP precincts in rural areas and High Point.

"The district has been drawn too much toward the Democratic Party," McDaniel said. "It's impossible for a Republican to win that seat."

Contact Mark Binker at (919) 832-5549 or mbinker@news-record.com