State Sen. Kay Hagan said Tuesday she is "looking into" a run for the U.S. Senate seat now held by Republican Elizabeth Dole.
The Greensboro Democrat's name has been raised frequently by political analysts in the past nine months as a potential contender. However, this is the first time Hagan herself has directly addressed the possibility of challenging Dole, who faces re-election in 2008.
Until now, Hagan has been circumspect in talking about a potential run, saying during this year's legislative term that she was focused on completing the state budget.
On Tuesday, Hagan said Dole is "vulnerable" to a challenge.
"I guarantee you, I wouldn't be thinking about this if I didn't think she was," Hagan said. "She's definitely vulnerable. I don't think she's in North Carolina very much, and I couldn't tell you a thing she's done for North Carolina."
Hagan said she would make a final decision on whether to run "sooner rather than later."
She joins at least two other Democrats in considering a run against North Carolina's senior senator. Rep. Grier Martin , a Wake County legislator, and Forsyth County Commissioner Ted Kaplan , a former state s enator, also have expressed interest publicly.
Martin recently attracted notice from political insiders when he met with officials who run the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, a conduit for national money and support.
Dole's political stock fell after the 2006 elections, when as chairwoman of the Republican National Senatorial Committee she watched the U.S. Senate fall into Democratic hands. Her popularity has rebounded since then, and she regularly gets just shy of 50 percent support in statewide polls. Democrats see that as a weakness, saying a popular incumbent would regularly draw more than 50 percent support.
Dole is a proven fundraiser, a key edge for a campaign that experts say could easily cost a credible contender $10 million.
"Taking on Sen. Dole is a like going up Mount Everest," said Brad Crone , a Raleigh-based political strategist. "It's not insurmountable, but it's a very, very tall task."
Crone said Hagan, Martin and other would-be challengers have until roughly Halloween to declare themselves, mainly because of the time needed to raise money.
In fact, Hagan said the money question is one issue that has delayed a decision on her part.
"The amount of money that it takes to run a credible campaign these days is outrageous," Hagan said.
Like her other potential Democratic rivals, Hagan would have to build statewide name recognition in advance of a showdown with Dole.
Although she is certainly well known to Greensboro voters, Hagan's name is not well known outside the Triad. Even her post as a chairwoman of the powerful Senate appropriations committee does not translate into recognition among the general public .
By contrast, political analysts frequently use the term "rock star" to describe Dole's name recognition and appeal.
Democrats initially sought their own rock star to take her on.
In particular, national leaders courted Gov. Mike Easley earlier in the year. He is prohibited from seeking a third term as governor and has proved popular, winning election twice in years when Tar Heel voters backed President Bush over his Democratic rivals.
However, Easley has said in multiple interviews that he has no interest in serving in a legislative body.
Congressman Brad Miller , a third-term Democrat who represents Raleigh and Greensboro, also considered a run against Dole but decided to stay in the U.S. House.
Crone said that there is little downside for Hagan if she runs.
"Even if she loses, she gains very high status in the party and puts herself almost on equal footing with Dole," he said.
Even a loss, Crone said, would set Hagan up for a run at the 2010 U.S. Senate campaign or a bid for another statewide office.
Contact Mark Binker at (919) 832-5549 or mbinker@news-record.com
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