North Carolina may be the 10th largest state by population, but Tar Heels shouldn't expect to be a top 10 destination for presidential contenders in either the 2008 primary or general elections.
Quirks of timing, history and demographics typically keep North Carolina from being a presidential battleground, which is not to say there won't be any reason to go to the polls next year.
"Obviously, people will vote and North Carolina's votes count as much here as anywhere else," said Charles Prysby, a political science professor at UNCG.
Indeed, with the race for governor, a U.S. Senate seat and what are expected to be at least two close congressional contests, voters will have plenty of decisions to make. But most experts say the last time North Carolina's primary had a big impact on national politics was in 1976, when Ronald Reagan won the state, helping what had been a second-tier candidacy achieve prominence.
Prysby notes that there were many large states yet to hold primaries after North Carolina in 1976 and the state was watched as something of a Southern bellwether. Since then, North Carolina has kept its late-spring primary date but other states have gotten earlier.
North Carolina's 2008 primary comes in May, three months after many large and closely watched states have their nominating primaries or caucuses in January and February. So many primaries are happening early in the year that the nomination for both parties will likely be settled by early March.
In 2004 for example, North Carolina Sen. John Edwards conceded to Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry in the first week of March after losing a cluster of 10 nominating elections. And the schedule leans even earlier in 2008.
"The one way in which North Carolina could be a significant player is this scenario where you have two or possibly three candidates who have equally divided the delegates early in the year," Prysby said. The chances of that happening on either the Republican or Democratic side is unlikely, though.
Some thought was given to moving up the state's primary date, but a $5 million price tag and discouragement from the national political parties snuffed out that idea earlier this year. "I would have loved it if North Carolina was an early primary state," said Sen. Andrew Brock, a Davie County Republican and political consultant.
He authored a bill to move North Carolina's primary to February, but legislative leaders declined to act on it earlier this year. Having an earlier primary would have forced front-runners to spend time in North Carolina debating local issues, rather than popping in for fundraisers before heading off to campaign in earnest elsewhere."Up in New Hampshire, they expect to talk to the next president in person," Brock said.
North Carolina is also frequently off the radar of major party presidential candidates for the general election. That's because the state is perceived as solidly in the GOP column in national races. In 1992, Bill Clinton came close to defeating then-President George H.W. Bush in North Carolina, but came up short.
Since then, the state has snapped back to its solidly Republican preference when electing presidents. "We hope to change that of course," said Jerry Meek, chairman of the state Democratic Party. One thing that some observers say could swing the state toward the Democratic column is if Edwards, who lives in Chapel Hill, is the party's nominee for president.
However, his presence of the 2004 Kerry ticket did not help win the state for Democrats. Meek says Democrats are also watching a bill that could divide the state's electoral votes. Right now, the presidential candidate who wins the state gets all 15 of North Carolina's electors. Under the proposed change, the statewide winner would get two electors and the candidates would divide the remaining 13 by who won in each congressional district.
"People would feel more empowered," Meek said. As well, candidates could be prompted to spend at least a little time in North Carolina. As of this writing, that bill had cleared the Senate but not been heard in the House.
Still, North Carolinians should expect to see all the trappings of a busy campaign season in 2008. Two-term Gov. Mike Easley, a Democrat, is required to step down and the race to replace him began months ago.
Democrats seeking the job include the state treasurer and lieutenant governor while the Republican field includes a state senator, former Supreme Court justice and a high-profile lawyer. U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole also faces a re-election fight, although there is some question regarding which Democrat will take her on right now. And all 170 seats in the state legislature are up for re-election, although only a few of those will be considered competitive based on their party-makeup.
Public Officials
Federal officials
U.S. Senate
Richard Burr, R (Next election: 2010), 217 Russell Senate Office Building, Washington, DC 20510; (202) 224-3154
Elizabeth Dole, R (Next election: 2008), 555 Dirksen Office Building, Washington, DC 20510; (202) 224-6342
U.S. House
North Carolina has 13 seats in the lower branch of Congress -- four of which cover the major Triad cities. All seats are up for election this fall.
Howard Coble, R, 6th District, 2468 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington, DC 20515-3306; (202) 225-3065
Virginia Foxx, R, 5th District, 430 Cannon House Office Building Washington, DC 20515; (202) 225-2071
Brad Miller, D, 13th District, 1722 Longworth Building Washington, DC 20515; (202) 225-3032
Mel Watt, D, 12th District, 2236 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington, DC 20515-3312; (202) 225-1510
State Officials
Executive branch
Ten people are elected statewide and make up the Council of State. They serve four-year terms, with the governor and lieutenant governor not permitted to seek a third consecutive term. All offices are up in 2008.
Governor: Mike Easley, D, 20301 Mail Service Center, Raleigh, NC 27699-0301; (919) 733-4240 or (919) 733-5811; governor.office@ncmail.net
Lieutenant governor: Beverly Perdue, D, 20401 Mail Service Center, Raleigh, NC 27699-0401; (919) 733-7350; ltgovernor@ncmail.net
Auditor: Les Merritt, R, 20601 Mail Service Center, Raleigh, NC 27699-0601; (919) 807-7500; Leslie_Merritt@ncauditor.net
Labor commissioner: Cherie Berry, R, Labor Building, 4 W. Edenton St., Raleigh, NC 27601; (919) 733-7166; Commissioners.Office@nclabor.com
Attorney general: Roy Cooper, D, Old Education Building, 114 W. Edenton St., Raleigh, NC 27602; (919) 716-6400
Secretary of state: Elaine Marshall, D, Old Revenue Building, 2 S. Salisbury St., Raleigh, NC 27601; (919) 807-2005
Insurance commissioner: James Long, D, Dobbs Building, 430 N. Salisbury St., 27603 P.O. Box 2638, Raleigh, NC 27611; (919) 733-7343
Superintendent of public instruction: June Atkinson, D, 301 N. Wilmington St., Raleigh, NC 27601; (919) 807-3430; jatkinson@dpi.state.nc.us
Agriculture commissioner: Steve Troxler, R, 1001 Mail Service Center, Raleigh, NC 27699-1001; (919)733-7125; Steve.Troxler@ncmail.net
Treasurer: Richard Moore, D, Albemarle Building, 325 N. Salisbury St., Raleigh, NC 27603; (919) 508-5176
Legislative branch
The General Assembly meets annually in Raleigh, with the "long session" in odd-numbered years and the "short session" in even years. Fifty senators and 120 representatives make up the legislature.
Lawmakers are elected to two-year terms, and all seats are up this fall.
The address for the Legislative Building is 16 W. Jones St., Raleigh, NC 27601.
State Senate
Phil Berger, R, District 26; (919) 733-5708; philbe@ncleg.net
Peter Brunstetter, R, District 31; (919) 733-7850; peterb@ncleg.net
Stan Bingham, R, District 33; (919) 733-5665; stanb@ncleg.net
Katie Dorsett, D, District 28; (919) 715-3042; katied@ncleg.net
Don East, R, District 30; (919) 733-5743; done@ncleg.net
Anthony Foriest, D, District 24; (919) 301-1446; tonyf@ncleg.net
Linda Garrou, D, District 32; (919) 733-5620; lindag@ncleg.net
Kay Hagan, D, District 27; (919) 733-5856; kayh@ncleg.net
Jerry Tillman, R, District 29; (919) 733-5870; jerryt@ncleg.net
State House
Alma Adams, D, District 58; (919) 733-5902; almaa@ncleg.net
Cary Allred, R, District 64; (919) 733-5905; carya@ncleg.net
John Blust, R, District 62; (919) 733-5806; johnbl@ncleg.net
Alice Bordsen, D, District 63; (919) 733-5820; aliceb@ncleg.net
Larry Brown, R, District 73; (919) 733-5607; larrybr@ncleg.net
Harold Brubaker, R, District 78; (919) 715-4946; brub@ncleg.net
Nelson Cole, D, District 65; (919) 733-5779; nelsonc@ncleg.net
Jerry Dockham, R, District 80; (919) 715-2526; jerryd@ncleg.net
Bill Faison, D, District 50; (919) 715-3019; billf@ncleg.net
Dale Folwell, R, District 74; (919) 715-2526; dalef@ncleg.net
Mary Price "Pricey" Taylor Harrison, D, District 57; (919) 733-5771; priceyh@ncleg.net
Hugh Holliman, D, District 81; (919) 715-0873; hughh@ncleg.net
Bryan Holloway, R, District 91; (919) 733-5609; bryanh@ncleg.net
Pat Hurley, R, District 70; (919) 733-5865; path@ncleg.net
Maggie Jeffus, D, District 59; (919) 733-5191; maggiej@ncleg.net
Earl Jones, D, District 60; (919) 733-5825; earlj@ncleg.net
William "Bill" McGee, R, District 75; (919) 733-5747; williamm@ncleg.net
Earline Parmon, D, District 72; (919) 733-5829; earlinep@ncleg.net
Laura Wiley, R, District 61; (919) 733-5877; lauraw@ncleg.net
Larry Womble, D, District 71; (919) 733-5777; larryw@ncleg.net Register to vote at any city hall, public library or when applying for a driver's license. Voters must be 18 by the election and must register at least 25 days prior to the election.
Alamance: 570-6755 or http://www.alamance-nc.com/alamance-NC/Departments/boe
Caswell: 694-4010 or http://www.caswellcountync.gov/county/depts/boardelec.htm
Davidson: 242-2190 or http://www.co.davidson.nc.us/Elections/default.asp
Forsyth: 703-2800 or http://www.co.forsyth.nc.us/elections
Guilford: 641-3836 or http://gcms0004.co.guilford.nc.us/elections_cms
Randolph: 318-6900 or http://www.co.randolph.nc.us/elections
Rockingham: 342-8107 or http://www.co.rockingham.nc.us/Election/boeindex.htm
Stokes: 593-2409 or http://www.co.stokes.nc.us/vote
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