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Democrats' troubles take the heat off Burr

Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen finds evidence suggesting that Republicans could win as many as 10 U.S. Senate seats currently held by Democrats in next year's elections.

He doesn't believe that's likely to happen but notes that the GOP could make "a big dent" in the Democrats' Senate majority in 2010 "and finish the job in 2012 when Democrats will have a lot more to defend."

That takes a lot of heat off North Carolina Republican Sen. Richard Burr and, in my opinion, goes a long way toward ensuring his re-election next year.

To see why, think back to last year's big win by Democrat Kay Hagan over Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole.

There were four reasons that happened:

1. Dole had a lackluster record in the Senate and wasn't seen in North Carolina very often in six years.

2. Hagan ran a vigorous, effective campaign.

3. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee made it a high priority to unseat Dole and poured millions of dollars into the race.

4. Barack Obama's candidacy pumped up the turnout of Democratic voters.

How will circumstances be different for Burr next year? Let's count the ways:

1. He doesn't have Dole's problem, or at least not nearly to the same extent.

2. Unknown because the Democrats don't have a leading candidate yet.

3. With no Obama on the ballot, fewer Democrats will vote.

4. With so many incumbent Democrats in trouble, the party's priority and big bucks will be on defending the seats they have rather than winning new ones.

Factors 3 and 4 likely will be enough to give Burr a relatively easy re-election.

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Posted by Doug Clark on Wednesday, November 25, 2009 at 11:27 am

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tonymo

November 25, 2009 - 12:47 pm EST

Dole's mantra, "first do no harm!" Does anyone believe she would have voted for the incredibly expensive, now shown to be worthless "stimulus" package where they have to lie about the few jobs created by this disaster.

Does anyone think she would have voted for the "Destruction of the American Healthcare Act?" That it would have made it unnecessary for Landrieux to become a very expensive whore! Isn't bribery a crime" What if a corproate CEO gad done what she did?

Hagan in her short tenure has shown herself to be an administraion puppet with her vote for the stimulus, and for the destruciton of healthcare. I was in her D.C office last week. As I walked in the office I came across a lovely flat screen tv tuned to MSLSD. What else do we have to know about this woman. MSLSD caters to the fringe lunatic leftists in this country! And our United States senator has that playing in her office!

Doug

November 25, 2009 - 1:07 pm EST

You're unbelievable, Tony.

First, referring to Mary Landrieu as a "whore" and accusing her of bribery is inexcusable. The first is simply a baseless, tasteless and indecent slur. To the second point: It's not bribery to accept an additional $100 million in Medicaid payments for her state. That's not money going into her purse, it's going for the people of Louisiana. I wouldn't expect her to turn it down if Harry Reid wants to give it. She didn't even promise a vote for the final bill.

As for your comments about Kay Hagan, I'm just floored. Earlier this week, you were praising her for how nice she was during your meeting last week. You were there with your wife, who's an advocate for lung cancer research, and you were very grateful for Hagan's response as she agreed to co-sponsor S 332. But now you're reviling her. You really ought to be ashamed.

tonymo

November 25, 2009 - 3:27 pm EST

First of all Harry Reid did not give the "esteemed senator" anything. The money came from the taxpayers! Should all 100 senators get $300 million of taxpayer money to vote for or against an issue. If the issue is woth voting for why does the "esteemed" senator have to be paid $300 million!

Yes, Hagan was very pleasant the day we met her. Yes she did co-sponsor the bill being pudhed by the Lung Cancer Alliance. How does that preclude her being the left wing ideologue that she obviously is. She's 2 for 2 in backing the left wing of her left wing party against the wishes, according to every recent poll, of her constituents.

The stimulus has been an abject failure, and many of the purported jobs created were shown to be phony! This health care disaster will finish off an already weak economy, massively increase the deficit despite phony accounting used to make it appear otherwise, and 18-24 million (according to the final bill) will still be uninsured after 10 years!

So who is the problem here, me or Mrs. Hagan and the Louisiana prosty!

Doug

November 27, 2009 - 9:24 am EST

You're the problem because you're simply unable to accept the possibility that anyone can disagree with you in good faith. You always have to throw in personal slurs, like your unconscionable slander of Mary Landrieu. It's becoming very tiresome.

Elected representatives are not supposed to conduct public opinion surveys before casting every vote. I suppose Sen. Hagan should not have agreed to co-sponsor the lung cancer bill before commissioning a survey to find out whether a majority of N.C. residents support it.

tonymo

November 27, 2009 - 11:22 am EST

Good faith! You must be kidding. How is blatanly lying about almost every aspect of their plan including using 10 years of collecting taxes and fees and providing benefits for 6 years to hide the real costs "good faith"? How about sayiing they will help pay for this disaster buy cutting Medicare fraud and waste! Please provide us the information showing when that has EVER happened. If it is possible, why do they need a bill to do it? Why haven't been doing it all along?

They talk of coverage for ALL Americans, but according to the CBO, after 10 years 18-24 million will still be uninsured depending on the final version. At the Liar-in-Chief's last news conference on healthcare, he said that 30 million were uninsured (sure seems lijke a lot of borrowed money to cover 6-12 million more people!), even though the time prior to that he used the figure 47 million! The CBO has also said that either plan will RAISE THE COST OF HEALTHCARE FOR EVERYONE, but we are still being told that it will reduce the cost!

We are being told the senate version will cost about $900 billion, but again they forget to tell us that that figure is for 6 years of providing benefits! The Heritage Foundation projects the actual cost to be about $2.5 TRILLION. They are not bound by the same moronic rules that hamstring the CBO, where the CBO can only score the information they are provided even if they know it to be phony!

Then they simply remove about $250 billion from the bill for the "doctor fix" and just put it against the deficit elsewhere. The say the also intend to help pay for it with about $500 billion in Medicare payment cuts, but it won't affect services. How does that work with about 3 million baby boomers a year piling onto the rolls in 2011? And again, when was the last time the brave members of congress cut Medicare!

So please explain that "good faith" thing to me again! Would that be similar to the their "good faith" support of the wildly successful "emergency stimulus" legislation. How's that working!

Doug

November 27, 2009 - 11:42 am EST

I'm not going to respond to all of that, but I will pick out one of your statements.

The difference between 30 million and 47 million is perfectly understandable if you listened to what Obama actually said at that news conference.

There may be 47 million people in the U.S. who don't have health insurance. He referred to 30 million Americans who cannot afford health insurance. That means he excluded illegal immigrants and people who could afford health insurance but choose not to carry it.

If I were to use your standard of discourse, I'd accuse you of lying about what Obama said. But reasonable people understand that all of us sometimes make mistakes or draw conclusions that are simply wrong. It doesn't mean we're lying.

Unfortunately, you continue to demonstrate that you are not a reasonable person, and my patience is waning as you drive down the level of discourse in this forum.

tonymo

November 27, 2009 - 12:18 pm EST

This is exaxtly what you always do. You pick one point out of dozens that may be questionable, and completely ignore every other FACTUAL point! That's what demagogues do. I recently send you numerous outrageous statements made by the global warming zealots. You chose ONE ( which utlimately turned out to be factual as were all the other) to challenge me on. I sent the verifying information, which I guess disappointed you! Oops I digressed!

Back to the point. How in the name of God does Obama know who can and can't "afford" health insurance. I once sold supplemental benefits to a local company. I asked one of the younger guys whether he had the company heralth insurance. He said no. I asked why not. He said he couldn't afford it. The company charged FIVE do;;ars a week for individual plans at the time!

Here is how Hagan deals with anyone who opposes her left wing agenda! The difference between me and she is that I can't raise anyone's taxes, I can't destroy the economy, I can't force anyone to buy healthcare or pay a fine, I can't cut anyone's existing benefits, and I can't go on the floor of the senate and LIE to people!

How about a blog on this side of Hagan! The side that has MSLSD on the television in her office. The side that is so much more respectful of those who disagree with her!

You have a major blind spot. I guess you are one of those that believe they will be exempted from the very unlikely consequences of the actions of these corrupt control freaks.
*****************************************************************************
Obviously this was meant for her left wing supporters. Are you contributing!

Dear Friend,

Imagine a battalion of right-wingers, tea partiers and ultraconservatives being elected and descending on Washington in January 2011.

Not a pretty picture is it? Unfortunately, it could happen.

Sincerely,

(Here in the email was her signature!)
Kay Hagan

Doug

November 27, 2009 - 12:24 pm EST

Good thing you've never made outrageous statements.

You keep repeating something about MSLSD being on in Hagan's office. What are you talking about? Is that supposed to be MSNBC? Is that an illegal channel or something?

How many TVs does Hagan have in her Senate office? Were they all tuned to MSNBC, or were some tuned to other channels?

Hagan should gather some of your rants and use them in fundraising letters: This is what we're up against!

Doug Johnson

November 25, 2009 - 4:38 pm EST

Tony agree with one thing Proud Mary sold her vote. However I am not going to call anyone a whore, unless to their face!
Also the 300 million is tax payers money.
Mr. Clark are you telling us the medicaid need is greater in Louisiana , than in other states?
I think Burr biggest problem is, he lost contact with the common folks that worked for him.
I been on serveral tea party buses and heard about people who gave small get togethers out of their pocket, then when Burr was in town and had a event they were not invited!
I had breakfast with him, have not seen him in Caswell County since.
I am one of those rare people, I do not give a flip about myself, I care about my state and country.
One thing I admire about John Edwards, he was always close by.
Shame he had to screw everything up.
I told my wife after we had supper with him, that man willl some day be president. WRONG!
Hagan ran a campaign financed by far left groups.
Now she paying them back.
Only 36% of NC voters want a Obamacare, yet she voted for it.

I had a silly idea, that you were to represent your people, how silly of me!
When you can jump threw the hoops for Harry Reid!

Connie Mack Jr

November 25, 2009 - 4:53 pm EST

Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen finds evidence suggesting that Republicans could win as many as 10 U.S. Senate seats currently held by Democrats in next year's elections.* Doug

They must be using Republican Glenn Beck Tea Party new math to come up with that number? I guess they forgot to subtract two Republican Senators already in Deep Do Do! Senator John Ensign, the Nevada family values " Thou shall not steal another man wife" and Senator Vitter, the family values Dude who wears Diapers to a New Orleans Cat house....