news-record.com

National Democrats are watching North Carolina’s legislative campaigns carefully, according to a memo circulated by the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. In the memo, executive director Michael Sargeant lays out where Democrats hope to make gains in state houses as well as where Democrats see themselves as in for tough campaigns.

North Carolina is not among the 10 chambers where Democrats hold majorities but face “tight contests” this year, according to Sargeant. That list includes: Alabama Senate, Colorado Senate, Indiana House, Nevada Senate, New Hampshire Senate, New York Senate, Ohio House, Pennsylvania House, Wisconsin Assembly and the Wisconsin Senate.

But Sargeant does put North Carolina in a second tier of races.

“We also have our eye on the Alabama House, Michigan House and the North Carolina Senate and House. Despite comfortable margins in those chambers, Republicans are taking those states seriously,” the memo reads.

You can read the full memo by clicking here; more from Huffington Post here; more from the Dems redistrcting effort here.

The memo says that keeping control of state houses is critical since it is legislatures that will redraw Congressional and state legislative maps following this year’s Census. If one party controls that process, they can pretty much draw maps favorable to their candidates. In North Carolina’s case, winning either the House or Senate would give Republicans a seat at that redistricting table they have had for more than a century.

It does seem the NC House and Senate Republicans do seem to have a more coordinated strategy and comprehensive web presence this year. You can see the Republican Senate Caucus blog here.  Meanwhile, the House Republicans are putting their best video feet forward with this pitch by Rep. Ruth Samuelson of Charlotte (click here).

My two cents is this: the Democrats memo tends to confirm what might for the conventional wisdom in the North Carolina races. House and Senate Democrats have a numerical and historical advantage but can’t be complacent. There are factors (such as a poor but slowly recovering economy) working in favor of Republicans this year and the two GOP caucuses seem determine to maximize those advantages. Neither side should think they have a slam dunk coming and both are probably hoping that their respective U.S. Senate candidates, who will be at the top of this year’s ballots, are exciting enough to draw supporters to the polls in November.