For all those who have been following Tar Heel Two-Step over who will challenge Republican U.S. Sen. Richard Burr and whether Democrats could run the proverbial yellow dog and win, this column (click here) in today's Roll Call from Stuart Rothenberg is worth a read. From the column:
Recently, Republicans have started complaining long and hard about polling conducted this cycle by Public Policy Polling in the Tar Heel State. They note, quite correctly, that PPP is a Democratic polling firm and that too many reporters fail to note their partisan bent. GOP insiders also complain about the firm’s sample, arguing that it often is too urban and too Democratic, and that its surveys understate Burr’s strength and his prospects for re-election.
(Politico's back-story on what Rothenberg is writing about is here.) There's also this caveat for the GOP:
Rather than whining about PPP, Republicans might want to try to set the record straight in North Carolina by releasing their own poll by a credible, full-time polling firm. That would go a long way to helping develop a more balanced, more thoughtful narrative about the race.
Rothenberg is a nationally known political writer and someone I've quoted as an expert source in my stories. His message in this column is relatively simple: Political writers of all stripes need to know what well they're drinking from.
Any polling firm, whether they work from a right, left or indifferent philosophy, has a stake in being correct. Giving bad information to their clients is a quick way for any polling firm to go out of business quickly. So the fact that a firm is known as a Democratic firm (as PPP is) doesn't disqualify its numbers. But, as Rothenberg says, it does require you handle them with a certain amount of care.
Most of the public polling available in North Carolina right now has some sort of ideological bent. PPP obviously has a spot on the left. Civitas has been around for a while on the right. Both firms have been known to ask some really good, insightful questions. But every once in a while, either through questions or analysis, both outfits will let their partisan flags fly.
Also on the ideological right: Carolina Strategy Group is the new kid on the block. Rasmussen tends to do regional surveys but has been known to horse-race poll in NC.
Survey USA does some non partisan work for a lot of television stations - although I've not always been sold on their samples. The Elon University Poll does some really good polling, but rarely engages in horse-race numbers.
There are probably a few others out there that I'm forgetting, but those are the places from which I see numbers most often. All of them have strengths and weaknesses.
One other reminder vis-à-vis the Burr race: At this point in the Hagan-Dole campaign, Hagan wasn't in and Democrats were still casting about for a candidate. For goodness sakes, former First Lady Mary Easley's name still came up fairly frequently at this point - wonder how that would have worked out?
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