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Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling firm, says Gov. Bev Perude, a Democrat, is in trouble. From a release this afternoon:

PPP's monthly North Carolina poll finds Pat McCrory leading Bev Perdue 52-41 in a hypothetical rematch of their closely contested 2008 Gubernatorial race.

During the fall Perdue's reelection prospects were showing some improvement. She pulled within 4-5 points of McCrory on our September and October polls after trailing by wider margins for most of the year. But over the last 3 months she's regressed again, facing deficits of 9, 10, and now 11 points.

Perdue's approval has dipped back down to 32%, with 51% of voters disapproving of her. That's the lowest her approval rating's been since last March. She has two major problems: independents disapprove of her by a greater than 2:1 margin (23/59) and her party base isn't terribly enthusiastic about her either. Only 50% of Democrats give her good marks while 31% disapprove.

Now, just to knock down one preposterous idea I've seen today: Perdue's tax increase proposal came out today so it had no effect on the polling results.

That is about the only good news for Perdue in those numbers. Some thoughts:

• UGLY. As in the campaign for governor this year will be UGLY. With a 51 percent disapproval rating, Perdue is going to have to bring McCrory's "unfavorable" down to the same level to have a shot at winning.
• From the analysis: "Faison's machinations have turned off many Democrats in the state. Only 5% have a favorable opinion of him to 30% with a negative one. To put that -25 favorability spread with Democrats into perspective, Pat McCrory's is only -11 (26/37) across party lines. Democrats like McCrory better than Faison." Ouch.
• 40 percent of voters have a favorable impression of McCrory. Some of that has to do with his careful work building his image. But I think a part of it is just collateral benefit from not having been in office for the past four years. Sitting politicians aren't faring well in the polls right now.