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Why no dropout numbers?

So the state board of education met yesterday and will meet again today. Among the things they'll discuss is the dropout rate for the state and school districts. I requested Guilford County's information yesterday from several people at GCS and the state board office.
GCS said they didn't have it and the state board just didn't return my call or fulfill my request.
This morning The Charlotte Observer has an article about the new conference Charlotte-Meck Superintendent Peter Gorman held yesterday announcing his district's dropout rate has decreased from 6.4 percent in 2006-07 to 5.9 in 2007-08.
So how is it that the Charlotte super had the numbers but our own Mo Green didn't? Are Gorman and his people better dialed into Raleigh and its workings? Could this hurt us as we battle with budget concerns?

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Monica (imported)

February 5, 2009 - 10:08 am EST

I don't have in faith in their numbers - they find creative ways to "cook the books"

Garth (imported)

February 5, 2009 - 12:08 pm EST

We had also, Mo followed request of Sate to wait until today to release.

Garth (imported)

February 5, 2009 - 12:10 pm EST

Typo - Sate SB State

J. Brian Ewing (imported)

February 5, 2009 - 1:17 pm EST

Garth,

So I was both lied to and the central office withheld public information?

Do you condone this type of behavior?

I'm not surprised (imported)

February 5, 2009 - 2:23 pm EST

Brian, Brian, Brian....get used to this. Guilford county is a master at concealing the real facts and figures because they have hired people, who have hired more people to deal strickly with contorting numbers.

Garth (imported)

February 5, 2009 - 3:55 pm EST

Hold on there, because GCS staff honored a request from DPI and were provided a heads up so as to enable them to answer your questions intelligently is not a lack of transparency. I might be the biggest critic of the historic lack of transparency, but in this case Mo honored legitimate request and Board did not have access until after 3:00 PM yesterday along with the caveat that DPI embargoed the release.

It took me over an hour of modeling to be comfortable with the information in the data and I do it for a living and was only interested in answering 2 questions for myself. YES, you were told a false hood, but whoever answered you might not have had access to “embargoed” (State Term) information. If they intentionally lied, a Public Apology and true repentance is your just reward, were it honest don’t impeach your contact, go for DPI, things are much better so far with Mo. Iif you were intentionally lied to, well roast-em well for me, a roasted fanny does improve cognitive function in some.

My post on the Chalkboard was not meant as a condemnation at all, quite the opposite, when you are given something on condition of imminent release and honor it there is nothing wrong. If the person you asked told you they did not have it and they knew we did they should have told you the COMPLETE TRUTH but honored the request not to disseminate.

Transparency, anyone following my post knows I will push the envelope in my desire that the public has access to information. I recognize the DPI request for what it was and question Dr. Gorman’s breach of protocol and privilege, I had thought better of him. If you were lied to (intentionally mislead) by staff by all means roast them! If it was oversight, compliment them, the drop out rate in GCS is something to be impressed with and while it increased slightly I know how much Terry worked last year to finagle rate last year, Mo has not. Apples to Apples, call it a draw in my book and we are the lowest urban district in the state using NCDPI’s bogus methodology. Mo did as asked by DPI and public can judge the way it was handled. I do not condone the intentional deception if it was there, I hope either way it is a learning experience for those involved.

Simply put, the truth was what you deserved (ie: “we have the information but have been asked not to disseminate until tomorrow”), not the information delivered by GCS staff contrary quid pro quo request by DPI, a few hours would not have hurt public interest and might have served it better. Yes, my comments are open for rebuke and I welcome the experience.

Garth

Margaret Banks (imported)

February 5, 2009 - 6:16 pm EST

I must object most vehemently.

State law does not make exceptions for embargoes. The obligation to follow the law (i.e., hand over the documents) supersedes the request from DPI.

In other words, DPI does not trump state law.

Don (imported)

February 5, 2009 - 7:56 pm EST

I hear that a New York school has decided to name one its schools after our President.

Isnt something that we should consider for that for GC?

Obama Elementary,
Obama Middle,
Obama High School.

Maybe some of the struggling kids will get inspired!

Parent (imported)

February 6, 2009 - 8:00 am EST

I want to know exactlly how they get this percentage. I know my son's freshman class had
300 in it only 119 graduated 4 years later......
Is this some sort of new math?

Roch101 (imported)

February 6, 2009 - 8:28 am EST

"Hold on there, because GCS staff honored a request from DPI and were provided a heads up so as to enable them to answer your questions intelligently is not a lack of transparency." -- Garth

Garth is wrong and Margaret Banks is right. Any information that would otherwise be public cannot be withheld because of an "embargo" no matter who "embargoes" it. Nor can information be withheld so that parties have time to properly "parse" it. If an agency has it, they must release it. It either is or is not a public record on its face, it does not become a public record upon the expiration of an embargo or upon approval of some bureaucrat.

Garth would do well to acquaint himself with public records laws in this state. The reasons he offers for the delay have him defending violations of state law.

David Colin (imported)

February 6, 2009 - 10:38 am EST

Who cares?

The Drop out rate is 3 plus percent. The graduation rate is 79%.

Seventeen percent of the kids are hiding in the rest rooms.at graduation time.

No sane individual can deal with the absurdity of the numbers. generation methods. There is no question that well over the so called 3 plus percent "never" graduate.

Mark Twain/Disraeli
There are "lies,damn lies, and statistics"

Garth (imported)

February 6, 2009 - 11:54 am EST

Roch101 – I am wrong! Pluralitas non est ponenda sine necessitate, the good friar must have cut himself often, the razor, it is sharp.

David, what he should have said was, "there are liars, damn liars and Polysticians...

Garth (imported)

February 6, 2009 - 12:07 pm EST

David,

Who is served by misleading the public into the concept that 3.3 percent of our kids drop out of High School? It is nothing more than self serving dribble by a bunch of political hacks serving nonsense to other political hacks desiring to be mislead into thinking things are not that bad.

There are a million variables and excuses you can use and methods you can justify, the one I use for guess work is simple…how many 8th graders in 2008, how many diplomas did we issue in 2008, difference divided by 8th graders is % drop out. It is only a quick and dirty and I know it’s fallacies but it does give a general feel for the problem.

David Colin (imported)

February 6, 2009 - 12:29 pm EST

Garth

Absolutely.

Read my comment on the editors log.

Also

"t is nothing more than self serving dribble by a bunch of political hacks serving nonsense to other political hacks desiring to be mislead into thinking things are not that bad"

A good deal of it however is also( our dribble) administrators/board members in our school system playing numbers games for appearance and presentation.

(imported)

February 7, 2009 - 9:45 am EST

The sickest thing I read on this was the comment from Alan Duncan.

"School board Chairman Alan Duncan echoed the sentiment of several board members, saying while the increase is disappointing, the fact that the rate remains low shows a commitment to the issue.

“We won’t rest until we don’t have dropouts,” Duncan said".

To me that just shows that this man is just not to be trusted! Lies, lies and more lies!

Paul Daniels (imported)

February 7, 2009 - 10:08 am EST

I have said before that there should be no secrets between school boards (or any other public body) and the public. I don't know what transpired between Brian and GCS with regard to his request but if he asked for the dropout information and and GCS had the numbers they should have been provided them.

I have also said that GCS and the board have a public relations problem caused by what a lot of folks see as an unwillingness to be more open, and the opaque quality of the information that sometimes is provided, i.e., we have a 3% drop out rate but only 79% of students graduate within 4 years. This sort of information does not, at first glance, pass scrutiny and it does sometimes appear that the numbers are being manipulated to put schools in the best light possible. This is why a free and impartial press is so important.

Having said this, I think too often the N&O is more a cheerleader for the schools (afraid that criticism of the schools will undermine public support for them) than an objective watchdog. Garth is doing a great job trying to keep up with the numbers and analyzing the data to the extent it is provided to him, but there is no substitute for voters and a media who demand honesty from elected officials.

Believe me folks, I have learned during the past two months that it is a lot harder to sit up at that dias with the school board than it appears from down below. For myself, I am increasingly aware of my own short-comings. I hope that when I do make a mistake (and there will be mistakes) that I will have the courage to do what I tried to do before entering public life and own up to them.

Paul Daniels

(imported)

February 7, 2009 - 12:59 pm EST

Paul, Its precisely because of the comment above yours that its difficult to change things.

Alan Duncan runs the show. He manipulates everything.

David Colin (imported)

February 7, 2009 - 3:20 pm EST

Mr. Daniels

"public relations problem"

You’re Close.

Actually we have an education problem that we try
to cover over with public relations.

For instance the new Strategic Plan

“The GCS Continuous Improvement Process Model

In GCS, we are striving to reach a state of excellence,
one characterized by outstanding achievement and
high performance at every level in the organization.
As part of this strategic plan, GCS is putting a new
process in place, one that focuses on continuous
improvement. The goal is to be better tomorrow
than we are today.
The GCS Continuous Improvement Process Model
The graphic on this page depicts the continuous
improvement process model GCS will use during the
next three years to ensure the district implements
the strategies outlined in this plan. The model
requires the district to set goals (PLAN), develop and
implement strategies toward meeting those goals
(DO), monitor the district’s progress toward meeting
the goals (CHECK), and adjust plans as necessary if
progress is not being made (ACT).
The cycle of continuous
improvement will be
managed by a cross-section
of district staff whose
primary responsibility
will be to ensure that
implementation strategies
are executed as planned.
When barriers or impediments
exist and progress toward successful completion
is at risk, the Strategic Plan Monitoring and
Accountability Committee (SPAC) will have the
responsibility to provide resources and direction
to staff that will enable the task to be achieved on
time and within budgeted resources. SPAC also will
clarify organizational priorities and timelines when
resources and initiatives overlap.

GCS Strategic Plan Monitoring & Accountability
Committee (SPAC)”

Back as early as 2002 they had their “Process Management System”
Complete with “Continual/Continuous Improvement” “Plan Do Check Act, Their own version of “SPAC called MRT (Management Revue Committee)” Spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on it. Got a” prestigious certification/accreditation” Lost it, gave up and never again mentioned it to us.

Until Now.

Along comes Ms Carr the organizational GURU with the same flowerily words from her organizational GURU Bible. Quite simply she is a feather merchant. Albeit a bright one.
Wall Street is full of them.

David Colin (imported)

February 7, 2009 - 6:08 pm EST

Mr Daniels Mr. Garth:

What your system does is present the story and calculate the numbers in different ways to best accomplish their agenda/scheme and give different audiences a different picture
Not lies just cleverly construed to be different.

Now this group talks about building character in the students. Hardly the role models to emulate.

When one points it out they see nothing wrong.
In fact they get very upset with the messenger.

Give me your E_mails and I will give you some
details..
Blog readers don't care any more they are numb.
Bet you're not really interested

I'm very cynical.

Paul Daniels (imported)

February 8, 2009 - 11:20 am EST

David:

I am always interested. I took this job because I believe we can (and must do better). I hope that you will find that I am very much results oriented.

You are right, we have had these seemingly intractible problems in education that have festered for years with no solution in sight. People have justification to be cynical about public education for this reason. What we need is bold leadership - a willingness to do what MUST be done to do resolve these problems, i.e. the so-called "achievement gap", etc. (As I have said from day one, to fix our schools we must demand more not only of our teachers, board members, administrators, etc., but also of parents and students. Parents must understand that what happens at home affects what happens at school; they must instill values in their children and let them know that they must work hard at school, do their homework, etc., and children must put forth maximum effort once they get to school, and as Mo has said, treat school as if it were their job. Unfortunately, there are some who believe that the reason that students don't do their homework, are disruptive in class, assault teachers, etc. is the schools' fault. We have our work to do, but we need to spread the word that we can't get the job done without parents and students doing their part.)

I believe bringing Mo in was a good idea; he is a non-traditional educator and is not weighed down with a lot of the baggage that often comes with being a traditional educator. He is focused on results and I am rooting for him to succeed.

If you have ideas about how we can get were we need to go or anything else you would like to communicate to me, my email address is: . If you need additional contact information go to the GCS website and click on the the picture of the good looking bald guy on the board of education and it will take you to more information.

Best regards,

Paul Daniels

David Colin (imported)

February 8, 2009 - 1:39 pm EST

Mr Daniels.

Yes I will get back to you.

This is Crap.

“The GCS Continuous Improvement Process Model"

"GCS Strategic Plan Monitoring & Accountability
Committee (SPAC)”

It's strictly from the feather merchants make believe quality seminar. bible.

Lots of presentation i.e. the Summer Mathematica's Institute and the Parants University

Fancy names don't make it so.

The math institute teaches high school math.
I bet the University will give the parents a degree.

The System would do well to get the administrators
( from principal up ) more into directing and leading education as opposed to managing their careers.

I will send you info.

David Colin (imported)

February 8, 2009 - 4:59 pm EST

It is worse then we thought.

From School WEB page:

“GCS’ high school dropout rate has declined almost 50 percent since the 1999-2000 year, when it was 5.97 percent. The district is a state and national leader in the middle college high school movement, locating six middle college high schools for disconnected students on local college and university campuses. The schools form the foundation of “Zero Guilford,” the district’s national award-winning dropout prevention and recovery program”

I was wrong about our Graduation rates.
They are not 79%

From DPI:

2006 4-Year Cohort Graduation Rates by LEA
February 28, 2007

Attachment 3 GCS5
Guilford County Schools 63.5%
Wake County Schools 82.6%
Mecklenburg County Schools 74.6%

The state average is 68%

What credibility do these people ( GCS ) have

They could all work on wall street..

Something does not add up.

Best drop out rates worst graduation rates.
And we employ a statistician

Smoke and mirrors.
Ms Carr can spin it.

Garth (imported)

February 8, 2009 - 10:38 pm EST

The problem with any of these wonderful methods is that they all have serious flaws. Both Wake and Meck have large transient populations that skew these numbers more positive that Guilford that doesn’t have that large transient population giving us more accurate numbers.

So where do we go now? Apples to apples, in my dreams. Posting great accomplishments by anyone on these numbers…al PR. I have to deal with reality and when information is as hard to get as it is, good luck. This is not a criticism of Mo and Co, they have had no influence at all. It is nothing but admission that info gathering is hard to do in this case as national privacy kills data tracking and anything that makes you look good appears to be fair game when you have to justify your existence. Again, see my 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 post.

David, the numbers you quote have just as much misinformation as the numbers GCS posted, all lack veracity on some major point.

Garth (imported)

February 8, 2009 - 10:50 pm EST

Mr. Daniels like our other new Board members is feeling the shock of tons of information in a strange setting trying to get a handle on prioritizing an ocean. The job is not for the faint of heart and looks much easier the less you know. The issues are very real, special interests are many and deep and if you have the heart to care knowing the results of your decisions can be quite painful.

One of the greatest things I have witnessed since I have been on the Board has been Amos Quick’s real influence and accomplishments in not only the perspectives’ of students at Dudley, but the very real accomplishments of the students. Could we bottle it and export it to other schools it would really turn around our perspective in education.

David Colin (imported)

February 9, 2009 - 12:33 am EST

"David, the numbers you quote have just as much misinformation as the numbers GCS posted, all lack veracity on some major point."

I agree. However my system keeps posting the ones that make them appear good. You have made my point exactly. We are dealing with Smoke and mirrors.
and we mow have a Chief of Staff that is a professional PR person.

"Mr. Daniels like our other new Board members is feeling the shock of tons of information in a strange setting trying to get a handle on prioritizing an
ocean. The job is not for the faint of heart and looks much easier the less you know" ( I think you just called me or Mr Daniels stupid )

Sounds like you're lost.

I expect they can speak for themselves. No?

What is this all about.

"The job is not for the faint of heart and looks much easier the less you know."
"Faint Hearted" this is not a Shakespearian tragedy
Come on you're on the school board not the front lines. You know what Harry Truman said about the heat.
.
Simply put our system games the numbers.
And PR is paramount.

"Complete with “Continual/Continuous Improvement” “Plan Do Check Act"
Come on.

As I said
"And we employ a statistician"

"The System would do well to get the administrators
( from principal up ) more into directing and leading education as opposed to managing their careers"

Smith was in the best 1000 schools in America (Newsweek) Think about that.Best 1000 in America.

The fictitious "prestigious awards" and numbers are how they manage their careers.

The School "report cards" speak for themselves.

Go through them one at at time and look at the proficiency levels.

We are turning out many kids that are simply illiterate.

We make a 2% improvement in AYP and get all excited.

They can't read they can't write and if you take away their calculators they can't make change.
Hell forget the tattoos, body piercings and green hair
SMOD will handle that

Obviously not all but too many.

We keep celebrating our successes.
Trying to maintain self esteem.

The kids that qualify really qualify for AP courses will do just fine.

The rest better hope to win American Idol.

All I want them to say is overall we suck.
But we are going to fix it. If they keep telling us how great they are doing they never will.

Your an accountant. What we are doing is the equivalent of going out of business on a budget

I'm not interested in the Hubert Humphrey Award.
"Most Improved" For God sakes look at their "report card"
It is BS.. Smith does not deserve an award yet.

Maybe some day but not yet.

.

Parent (imported)

February 9, 2009 - 8:53 am EST

All I know is what I see.....

Their were 300 kids in my son's 9th grade class....
At the beginning of his senior year their were 135
119 walked the stage........

My other child now tells me of students that made 7 F's last year and may graduate in June.............

Please tell me that no administrator is now capapble of giving a diploma to a student with 7 F's.......

This makes high school diplomas worthless pieces of paper.

Garth (imported)

February 9, 2009 - 12:26 pm EST

David:

Anyone in the debate is not stupid and I would not imply such as I am sure Mr. Daniels is aware. As for PR, again my own criticism is hard to outdo, but you are giving it the good ole college try. It is hard to note change in a school system overnight, like an aircraft carrier the turning radius is measured in miles and takes time to observe, sometimes the best indicators are those that you can observe and that make sense like turning the wheel at the helm, you know it has been done, now you have to watch for the subtle signs the turn has begun.

Just because it has begun to turn, I am still trying to make sure it doesn’t stop. If you doubt my veracity, my kids future is on the line and that is saying something.

RE: Parent said:
I cannot comment on specifics, but can say that you cannot graduate without meeting state minimum requirements. Sometimes kids rumors are a touch misleading, but it is possible to overcome with make-up work and testing. Not easy, but possible.

Also take note, most States use a 10 point grading scale like our universities, in NC we use a 7 point scale which makes a 70 an F where it is a C in most other states. This can be discouraging to many “average students” and could contribute to our “drop-out” rate. Miss 1 question on a 5 question quiz and you have a C, 1 on a 10 question quiz is a B. A lot of drivers on the road today wouldn’t be using this scale, but that might be a good thing. In North Carolina a 70 average and you fail High School, most other states and you are “average”. How many kids with 70’s give up and leave school branded as failure when in other states they would be considered average?

No, I do not buy the argument that our schools are better or tougher, far from it, we have a long ways to go, but as a motivational factor for normal kids our grading scale may be a serious impediment.

(imported)

February 9, 2009 - 5:31 pm EST

Garth,

Dont waste your breath with this guy.

David Colin (imported)

February 9, 2009 - 6:13 pm EST

Anonymous!

That says it all doesn't it

David Colin (imported)

February 9, 2009 - 8:16 pm EST

"I cannot comment on specifics, but can say that you cannot graduate without meeting state minimum requirements. Sometimes kids rumors are a touch misleading, but it is possible to overcome with make-up work and testing. Not easy, but possible"

Thats meaning less.

Other than the courses like Algebra 1 that you must pass a state test the teacher can pass anyone.

If you are really interested in what can graduate I suggest.

1) Talk to the GTCC Developmental Division. The majority of kids coming from high school must take developmental ( remedial ) math and English. For some the math is actually arithmetic.

2) Check with the regional NC state universities. Many require remedial courses at the start.

Just looking at the school report cards should make it obvious

It is appalling. That is simply a fact.

Now look at courses like Physics/Chemistry.
They do good why. They are harder. Because only the brightest kids take them.

Now were talking about at grade level not excelling.

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